Small Craft Advisory 653, NWS Anchorage, AK

436 
FZAK51 PAFC 141157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE
THIS MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IN THE EVENING. A
996 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO
978 MB AND MOVE TO 140 NM NORTHWEST OF CASTLE CAPE SAT NIGHT. 


$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT
BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

883 
FZAK51 PAFC 142306
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO AROUND 390
NM SOUTHWEST OF AKHIOK SAT MORNING AT 992 MB...THEN STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY NEAR TOGIAK AT 976 MB LATE SUN MORNING. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ASHORE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING. NEAR 
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT BY MIDNIGHT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE
EVENING...EXCEPT E 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED SEP 12 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL TONIGHT. THEY ARE CURRENTLY HAVING A
LOT OF TROUBLE LOCKING DOWN THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND OUT EAST. AS WE MOVE WEST THINGS GET WORSE. NONE OF THE MODELS
CAN FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE
EASTERN BERING TONIGHT. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS
VERY BAD FOR SUCH A SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ARE ALSO STRUGGLING
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST IS NOT MUCH BETTER BUT IT IS ALSO NOT MUCH WORSE. THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOW PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY BUT
CONSIDERING HOW BAD THEY ARE DOING EARLY THINGS COULD BE A LOT WORSE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS WE MOVE WEST WEAK RIDGING RESIDES OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BUT IS RAPIDLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
RIDGING A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BERING
CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO AREAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL
HAVE LESS PRECIP BUT WILL HAVE MORE FOG. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TIME OF CLEARING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. BY
TONIGHT MANY AREAS IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALREADY BE SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WAVE AFTER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE RAIN WITH EACH PASS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST KEEPING MOST AREAS VOID OF PRECIP. BUT BY THIS EVENING THE
FRONT WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL THEN SIT IN THE EASTERN
BERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE NO REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUING THE TREND.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGING RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS AS IT PASSES. IT
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING FROM RUSSIA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE ALEUTIANS. RIDGING WILL FINALLY MOVE IN OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH THE WEAK PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LONG TERM. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE LOOKING FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH
TO SETUP UP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION STRETCHES DOWN
THROUGH THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT FLOW OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH WEAK LOWS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...155 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK SEP 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

AKZ101-140800-

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS WEEKEND...

A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS CLOSE TO THE MAGNITUDES SEEN IN LAST WEEK'S STORM.
THEREFORE THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THERE WILL BE MORE
UPROOTED TREES AND RESULTING POWER OUTAGES.

THE BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME:

UPPER HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM: SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO
50 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 100 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

LOWER HILLSIDE, EAST ANCHORAGE AND EAGLE RIVER: SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
65 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

REST OF ANCHORAGE: SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY INCREASING
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD HAVE PASSED THROUGH
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE
NEAR THE INLET.

CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

EZ SEP 12