Gale Warning 524, NWS Anchorage, AK

710 
FZAK61 PAFC 142306
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 53N 158W
SAT MORNING AT 992 MB...THEN STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY
NEAR 59N 159W AT 976 MB LATE SUN MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE ASHORE THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-151500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-151500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

779 
FZAK61 PAFC 151152
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 995 MB LOW NEAR 51N 163W
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO NEAR 56N 164W AT 976 MB LATE TONIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ASHORE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.   

$$

PKZ352-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.   

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS PRECIPITATION FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND
COOK INLET HAVE ALLOWED A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN KENAI AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL. A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW
POISED TO DROP INTO THE BERING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IN BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TO THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS
DEPICTING A DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THAN THAT OF THE
ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE BRIEF DRYING TREND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
WEST. RAIN WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BERING THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY
OF BRISTOL BAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE BERING WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE
LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING THAT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE IMPACTED BY
STRONG WINDS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF MAXIMUM WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB SEP 12