High Wind Watch 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

955 
WWAK71 PAFC 141736
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
936 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...POWERFUL LATE SUMMER STORM TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
ON SATURDAY AND TRACK TO INTO BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO ANCHORAGE...PORTAGE VALLEY
AND TURNAGAIN ARM AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

AKZ135-150600-
/X.EXB.PAFC.HW.A.0010.120916T1000Z-120916T2200Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
936 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* LOCATION...SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING CORDOVA.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
  EVENING. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
  FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND THEN BEGIN
  DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS....SOUTHEAST 45 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ101-150600-
/X.EXT.PAFC.HW.A.0010.120916T0400Z-120917T0900Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
936 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATION...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...HILLSIDE AND ALONG TURNAGAIN 
  ARM.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE
  UPPER HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM SATURDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD
  TO THE LOWER HILLSIDE AND EAST ANCHORAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THEN LOOK TO SPREAD TO THE
  REST OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
  REGION. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STRONG INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
  SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

* WINDS....SOUTHEAST 70 TO 85 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 100 MPH 
  ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE UPPER HILLSIDE. FOR THE REST OF 
  ANCHORAGE...SOUTHEAST 35 TO 50 MPH WITH POSSIBLE LOCAL GUSTS 
  TO 65 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

AKZ125-150600-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0010.120916T1000Z-120917T0000Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
936 AM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
  EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
  WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND THEN BEGIN
  DIMINISHING SLOWLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND 55 TO 70 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
  TO 80 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

JM

765 
WWAK71 PAFC 150009
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...POWERFUL LATE SUMMER STORM TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO BRISTOL BAY WILL BRING
DANGEROUS WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING DANGEROUS WINDS TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

AKZ101-151400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0010.120916T0400Z-120917T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0014.120916T0400Z-120917T0900Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
409 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM AKDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM AKDT
MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...HILLSIDE AND ALONG TURNAGAIN 
  ARM. 

* WIND...IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND LOWER HILLSIDE...SOUTHEAST WIND
  35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH. ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
  UPPER HILLSIDE...SOUTHEAST WIND 70 TO 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110
  MPH DIMINISHING TO 65 TO 80 MPH SUNDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE
  UPPER HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM SATURDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD
  TO THE LOWER HILLSIDE AND EAST ANCHORAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THEN WILL SPREAD TO THE REST
  OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
  REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
  MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ125-151400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0010.120916T1000Z-120917T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0014.120916T1000Z-120917T0000Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
409 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY
THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* WIND...EAST WIND 65 TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
  SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PEAK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
  WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN
  DIMINISHING SLOWLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ135-151400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0010.120916T1000Z-120916T2200Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0014.120916T1000Z-120916T2200Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
409 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM AKDT SUNDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING CORDOVA.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS 75 TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
  WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
  TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. STRONG 
  WINDS CAN PRODUCE WIND DRIVEN PROJECTILES AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED SEP 12 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL TONIGHT. THEY ARE CURRENTLY HAVING A
LOT OF TROUBLE LOCKING DOWN THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND OUT EAST. AS WE MOVE WEST THINGS GET WORSE. NONE OF THE MODELS
CAN FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE
EASTERN BERING TONIGHT. MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS
VERY BAD FOR SUCH A SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ARE ALSO STRUGGLING
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST IS NOT MUCH BETTER BUT IT IS ALSO NOT MUCH WORSE. THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH LOW PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY BUT
CONSIDERING HOW BAD THEY ARE DOING EARLY THINGS COULD BE A LOT WORSE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS WE MOVE WEST WEAK RIDGING RESIDES OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BUT IS RAPIDLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
RIDGING A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BERING
CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING RAIN TO AREAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL
HAVE LESS PRECIP BUT WILL HAVE MORE FOG. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TIME OF CLEARING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. BY
TONIGHT MANY AREAS IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALREADY BE SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WAVE AFTER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE RAIN WITH EACH PASS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST KEEPING MOST AREAS VOID OF PRECIP. BUT BY THIS EVENING THE
FRONT WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE
BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL THEN SIT IN THE EASTERN
BERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE NO REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUING THE TREND.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGING RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS AS IT PASSES. IT
WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING FROM RUSSIA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE ALEUTIANS. RIDGING WILL FINALLY MOVE IN OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH THE WEAK PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LONG TERM. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE LOOKING FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH
TO SETUP UP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION STRETCHES DOWN
THROUGH THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT FLOW OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH WEAK LOWS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...155 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DWK SEP 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

AKZ101-140800-

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS WEEKEND...

A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS CLOSE TO THE MAGNITUDES SEEN IN LAST WEEK'S STORM.
THEREFORE THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THERE WILL BE MORE
UPROOTED TREES AND RESULTING POWER OUTAGES.

THE BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME:

UPPER HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM: SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO
50 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 100 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

LOWER HILLSIDE, EAST ANCHORAGE AND EAGLE RIVER: SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
65 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

REST OF ANCHORAGE: SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY INCREASING
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD HAVE PASSED THROUGH
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE
NEAR THE INLET.

CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

EZ SEP 12