Gale Warning 523, NWS Anchorage, AK

514 
FZAK62 PAFC 142304
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 57N 162W WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SAT MORNING. 
A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 53N 158W SAT MORNING AT 992 MB...THEN
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY NEAR 59N 159W AT 976 MB LATE SUN
MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N
166E AT 995 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 54N 173E AT 987 MB
SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 14 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

970 
FZAK62 PAFC 151143
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 57N 164W WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. 
A PACIFIC LOW NEAR 51N 163W AT 995 MB WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO
NEAR 56N 164W AT 976 MB LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 59N
161W SUN AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO
55N 166E AT 997 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 53N 179E AT 988
MB SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW TO NE WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW TO NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ414-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 152348
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 55N 162W WILL MOVE TO 60N 160W AT 974 MB SUN
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH MON. A 990 MB
LOW NEAR 54N 170E SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 51N 176W AT 989 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174W SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 57N
167W AT 986 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS PRECIPITATION FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AROUND
COOK INLET HAVE ALLOWED A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN KENAI AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL. A SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW
POISED TO DROP INTO THE BERING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS IN BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TO THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS
DEPICTING A DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THAN THAT OF THE
ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE BRIEF DRYING TREND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
WEST. RAIN WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE BERING THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE VICINITY
OF BRISTOL BAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE ALEUTIANS WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...BUT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE BERING WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE
LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING THAT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE IMPACTED BY
STRONG WINDS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF MAXIMUM WINDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB SEP 12