Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITHIN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STEEP
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEER THAN YESTERDAY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW FOR ALL MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CWA UNTIL 3Z.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CAPABLE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECASTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVING OFF THE EXITING TROF AND ROTATING BACK CLOSE
TO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.

WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. STAYED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BIFURCATE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...SPREADING PRECIP TOWARDS THE
CWA. CURRENT THINKING WILL BE TO CONTINUE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH WILL JUST USE A BROAD BRUSH OF SLIGHT POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  66  47  66 /  50  30  10   0
FSM   59  70  49  68 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   54  68  48  67 /  50  10  10   0
BVO   52  65  45  65 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   54  65  45  64 /  60  30  30  10
BYV   56  67  47  62 /  60  30  30  10
MKO   54  67  46  66 /  50  20  10   0
MIO   53  65  47  64 /  60  40  20  10
F10   53  67  47  67 /  50  10  10   0
HHW   58  72  51  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.  THESE WINDS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF BASEBALL OR
LARGER HAIL.  THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS
AS THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD WHICH WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS.  A TORNADIC RISK WILL ALSO EXIST...THOUGH
WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED PENDING INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ073-122130-
PITTSBURG OK-
355 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 355 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCALESTER...KIOWA...ASHLAND...
SAVANNA...HAYWOOD...KREBS...ARPELAR...SCIPIO AND CROWDER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3498 9610 3515 9599 3512 9556 3469 9588
      3470 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 216DEG 27KT 3472 9612

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ057-122215-
CRAIG OK-
433 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG

AT 433 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CENTRALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WHITE OAK...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...
PYRAMID CORNERS...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9501 3699 9503 3697 9504 3696 9502
      3660 9522 3666 9543 3671 9544 3701 9540
      3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 206DEG 26KT 3672 9535

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ070-071-073>075-122245-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
444 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...MCINTOSH...NORTHERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN
     LATIMER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE

AT 444 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CROWDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STIGLER...ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...
EUFAULA...CHECOTAH...HANNA...VERNON...RAIFORD...VIVIAN...STIDHAM...
ONAPA...PIERCE...HITCHITA...MCALESTER...SAVANNA...HAYWOOD...BACHE...
ALDERSON...KREBS...ARPELAR...SCIPIO...BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON...
CROWDER...QUINTON...INDIANOLA...CANADIAN...BRIARTOWN AND PORUM.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3555 9577 3530 9502 3477 9577 3489 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 217DEG 28KT 3507 9574

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ061-062-122215-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
445 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MAYES AND EASTERN ROGERS

AT 446 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
TIAWAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TIAWAH...PRYOR AND ADAIR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3652 9542 3637 9512 3614 9548 3623 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 220DEG 27KT 3627 9547