Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
MANY WITH LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. KBVO WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. KTUL AND KRVS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE PRECIP BY ABOUT 1Z. THE REMAINDER OF OUR TAF SITES WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITHIN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STEEP
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEER THAN YESTERDAY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW FOR ALL MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CWA UNTIL 3Z.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CAPABLE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECASTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVING OFF THE EXITING TROF AND ROTATING BACK CLOSE
TO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.

WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. STAYED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BIFURCATE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...SPREADING PRECIP TOWARDS THE
CWA. CURRENT THINKING WILL BE TO CONTINUE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH WILL JUST USE A BROAD BRUSH OF SLIGHT POPS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
615 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO
A LINE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
MORE OF A CONCERN. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
05/12/2011  M2.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
05/12/2011  E2.50 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             WYANDOTTE               36.79N 94.72W
05/12/2011  E2.00 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             AFTON                   36.69N 94.96W
05/12/2011  M2.50 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL BROKE WINDSHIELDS

0605 PM     HAIL             1 SSW BARON             35.91N 94.62W
05/12/2011  E0.88 INCH       ADAIR              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             2 ESE SALLISAW          35.45N 94.75W
05/12/2011  E1.25 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             LEONARD                 35.92N 95.80W
05/12/2011  M1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS