Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Tulsa, OK

381 
WWUS54 KTSA 122327
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARC143-122337-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0280.000000T0000Z-110513T0000Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
627 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3594 9384 3595 9395 3608 9394 3628 9384
      3616 9358 3615 9358 3615 9355 3612 9355
      3612 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 210DEG 21KT 3603 9387

$$

ARC087-130000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0280.000000T0000Z-110513T0000Z/
MADISON AR-
627 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY...

AT 623 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WESLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DAMAGING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...HINDSVILLE...HARMONY...ALABAM...CLIFTY...MARBLE AND
FORUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 9384 3595 9395 3608 9394 3628 9384
      3616 9358 3615 9358 3615 9355 3612 9355
      3612 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 210DEG 21KT 3603 9387

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITHIN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STEEP
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEER THAN YESTERDAY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW FOR ALL MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CWA UNTIL 3Z.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CAPABLE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECASTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVING OFF THE EXITING TROF AND ROTATING BACK CLOSE
TO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.

WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. STAYED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BIFURCATE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...SPREADING PRECIP TOWARDS THE
CWA. CURRENT THINKING WILL BE TO CONTINUE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH WILL JUST USE A BROAD BRUSH OF SLIGHT POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  66  47  66 /  50  30  10   0
FSM   59  70  49  68 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   54  68  48  67 /  50  10  10   0
BVO   52  65  45  65 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   54  65  45  64 /  60  30  30  10
BYV   56  67  47  62 /  60  30  30  10
MKO   54  67  46  66 /  50  20  10   0
MIO   53  65  47  64 /  60  40  20  10
F10   53  67  47  67 /  50  10  10   0
HHW   58  72  51  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.  THESE WINDS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF BASEBALL OR
LARGER HAIL.  THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS
AS THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD WHICH WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS.  A TORNADIC RISK WILL ALSO EXIST...THOUGH
WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED PENDING INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
559 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
05/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
05/12/2011  M1.50 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             FAIRLAND                36.75N 94.85W
05/12/2011  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             2 S MOUNDS              35.85N 96.06W
05/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ049-053-122345-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
611 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 611 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
BOSWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOSWELL...MOYERS...DARWIN AND
DUNBAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3400 9595 3412 9595 3416 9597 3417 9579
      3450 9579 3451 9578 3451 9568 3455 9568
      3450 9553 3398 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 204DEG 25KT 3405 9595

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             AFTON                   36.69N 94.96W
05/12/2011  M2.50 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROKEN WINDSHIELDS

&&

PBS