Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
452 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY INTO THE EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR A LIMITED TORNADIC RISK INTO THE EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY WITH
THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...HIGH INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND SEVERITY AS THEY ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS AFTER
6 OR 7 PM. ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR SLOWLY WEAKEN
BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD BE ACTIVATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND STRONG INSTABILITY
BUILDS BY THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONGER AS THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM ALOFT MOVES NEARER
THE REGION.  THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADIC RISK.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
IN VICINITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY.

COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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