Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITHIN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STEEP
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEER THAN YESTERDAY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW FOR ALL MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CWA UNTIL 3Z.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...REACHING WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CAPABLE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECASTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
TEMPS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVING OFF THE EXITING TROF AND ROTATING BACK CLOSE
TO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION.

WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. STAYED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BIFURCATE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...SPREADING PRECIP TOWARDS THE
CWA. CURRENT THINKING WILL BE TO CONTINUE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...THOUGH WILL JUST USE A BROAD BRUSH OF SLIGHT POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  66  47  66 /  50  30  10   0
FSM   59  70  49  68 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   54  68  48  67 /  50  10  10   0
BVO   52  65  45  65 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   54  65  45  64 /  60  30  30  10
BYV   56  67  47  62 /  60  30  30  10
MKO   54  67  46  66 /  50  20  10   0
MIO   53  65  47  64 /  60  40  20  10
F10   53  67  47  67 /  50  10  10   0
HHW   58  72  51  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
427 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.  THESE WINDS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF BASEBALL OR
LARGER HAIL.  THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS
AS THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD WHICH WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS.  A TORNADIC RISK WILL ALSO EXIST...THOUGH
WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED PENDING INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.  DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ072-074-076-122300-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
504 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

AT 504 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
MCCURTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...KEOTA...KANIMA...
TAMAHA...SALLISAW...GANS...MULDROW AND MC KEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3558 9490 3543 9450 3511 9500 3517 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 215DEG 23KT 3520 9501

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ064>066-122300-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
509 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CREEK AND NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKFUSKEE

AT 510 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
WELTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELTY...BRISTOW AND SLICK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3600 9639 3585 9600 3553 9640 3561 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 213DEG 22KT 3564 9644

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

OKZ068-069-072-122315-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
515 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 516 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
COOKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUNCH AND COOKSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3596 9494 3575 9453 3560 9489 3564 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 230DEG 15KT 3567 9493

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             BIG CABIN               36.54N 95.22W
05/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       CRAIG              OK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             VINITA                  36.64N 95.15W
05/12/2011  E0.88 INCH       CRAIG              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
555 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             1 SE AFTON              36.68N 94.95W
05/12/2011  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS