Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 894
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2011, 1:16 PM CDT for 11 counties in Arkansas; 5 counties in Missouri; Lake County, Tennessee. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 23, 2011, 1:16 PM CDT (18:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 23, 2011, 2:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Butler County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Lake County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2279 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -67 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 553 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 184 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 2.1
- Supercell composite
- 10.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
440
ACUS11 KWNS 231817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231816
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-NE AR...SE MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231816Z - 231945Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS NE AR AND SE MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
AN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM NEAR ST
LOUIS SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A 35 TO 45 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS SE MO AND NE AR WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES ARE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN THE
LINE. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO PERSIST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE ERN MOST CELLS WITHIN THE MCS
WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE CELLS APPROACH THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST.
..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35838970 35699123 35689222 36139264 36549250 36649179
36719098 36729021 36678971 36358946 35838970SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 7:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford and 13 more | 53 min |
| May 22, 8:47 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 34 more | 7 hr |
| May 22, 11:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crawford, Cross and 23 more | 89 min |
| May 23, 5:07 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Fulton and 10 more | 113 min |
| May 23, 7:38 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Carroll | 97 min |
| May 23, 9:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Dallas, Faulkner and 26 more | 91 min |
| May 23, 9:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lafayette, Little River, Miller | 33 min |
| May 23, 10:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Fulton | 86 min |
| May 23, 12:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lafayette, Miller | 65 min |
| May 23, 12:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Craighead and 13 more | 93 min |
| May 23, 1:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 20 more | 6 hr |
| May 23, 3:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 20 more | 92 min |
| May 23, 5:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Washington | 23 min |
| May 23, 5:24 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian, Washington | 4 hr |
| May 23, 6:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Independence and 11 more | 87 min |
| May 22, 8:26 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barry, Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford and 33 more | 8 hr |
| May 22, 10:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve and 2 more | 66 min |
| May 23, 5:41 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Bates, Cedar, Dade, Hickory, Jasper and 5 more | 94 min |
| May 23, 6:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Camden, Cass and 34 more | 7 hr |
| May 23, 10:55 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Audrain, Bollinger, Boone, Butler, Callaway, Cape Girardeau and 28 more | 7 hr |
| May 23, 12:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | City of Saint Louis | 83 min |
| May 23, 3:20 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Davidson, Fentress, Jackson, Macon, Overton and 9 more | 85 min |
| May 23, 4:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bedford, Benton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Davidson and 29 more | 96 min |
| May 23, 4:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bedford, Benton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Davidson and 29 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.