Mesoscale Discussion 680

Issued

May 1, 2011, 7:29 AM CDT (12:29 UTC)

Expired

May 1, 2011, 9:00 AM CDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261May 1, 8:45 AM CDT

302 
ACUS11 KWNS 011230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011229
OKZ000-TXZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW/N-CENTRAL TX...SRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259...

VALID 011229Z - 011400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 259
CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW.  EXPECT PRIMARY SVR POTENTIAL TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL TX AND ADJOINING RED RIVER REGION THROUGH REMAINDER
MORNING...THOUGH SPORADIC SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR FARTHER N ACROSS
PORTIONS NW TX AND EXTREME SRN OK.  MRGL SVR GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN LINGERING DRYNESS IN SUBCONVECTIVE/SUBFRONTAL LAYER AND
RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF GUSTS TO SFC.
HOWEVER...WHERE APPRECIABLE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED...GUST POTENTIALLY
MAY BE MITIGATED BY COMBINATION OF HIGHER RH AND EVAPORATIONALLY
BOLSTERED STATIC STABILITY.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...FROM
N-CENTRAL AR SWWD ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK...AND
KAUFMAN/BOSQUE/CONCHO COUNTIES TX.  PLANAR ANALYSES OF VWP/PROFILER
DATA INDICATE 850-MB FRONTAL ZONE AND CONFLUENCE AXIS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT...NEAR LINE FROM FSM-GLE-SNK.  ANOTHER SVR
TSTM WITH OCNL SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR DYS
AND...LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR A FEW HOURS AGO..CALVED A LEFT SPLIT
NNEWD.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUITABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT N OF FRONT
WITH ELEVATED INFLOW...GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN
MORE COMPLEX STORM STRUCTURES.  THIS ACTIVITY LIKEWISE MAY TURN EWD
TOWARD METROPLEX AND TOWARD FIELD OF ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG MUCAPE
THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH HAIL/GUST RISK.  BAND OF TSTMS THAT HAS
CROSSED I-35 BETWEEN DTO AND RED RIVER SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 260
AND MAY BECOME SFC-BASED NEAR FRONT.  MEANWHILE MORE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER NW TX BETWEEN DYS/SNK/CDS AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS
NWRN PORTIONS WW WITH MRGL HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN.

..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32449655 31899797 31709920 31840008 32750042 33390042
            34709930 34849767 34849646 34569539 34189512 33989522
            33379604 32449655

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.