Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Nashville, TN

663 
WWUS54 KOHX 271927
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
227 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

TNC117-271937-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-110427T1945Z/
MARSHALL TN-
227 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
IS CANCELED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3572 8648 3588 8614 3579 8604 3570 8618
      3571 8621 3569 8624 3567 8623 3566 8625
      3558 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 241DEG 65KT 3569 8631

$$

TNC003-015-149-271945-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-110427T1945Z/
CANNON TN-RUTHERFORD TN-BEDFORD TN-
227 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
BEDFORD...SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND WEST CENTRAL CANNON COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13
MILES SOUTH OF MURFREESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND WESTERN CANNON
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8648 3588 8614 3579 8604 3570 8618
      3571 8621 3569 8624 3567 8623 3566 8625
      3558 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 241DEG 65KT 3569 8631

$$

ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
152 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST MISSOURI AT 1845Z. RAIN COOLED AIR OVER MUCH
OF MID STATE AT THIS TIME. SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ALONG SOUTH END OF PLATEAU HAVE PULLED EAST OF MY CWA AT
THIS TIME. NEXT ROUND ALREADY FIRING IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH
SEVERAL TORNADO WARNINGS UNDERWAY. 18Z SPECIAL RAOB AT OHX SHOWING
MOIST AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT A STABLE AIRMASS BUT EXPECT THIS TO
CHANGE AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO MID STATE. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO BE UNDER WARNINGS AS ACTIVITY HEADS
THIS WAY FROM MISSISSIPPI.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

UPDATE...
MASS OF RAIN/STORMS SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-STATE...
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOTALLY RECHARGED.
MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH/EAST FOR SEVERE STORMS. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS AND SEVERE THREAT IN UPCOMING UPDATE. RIVER FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH...MAINLY AROUND NASHVILLE AND WEST.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. SFC LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS AR
WILL RACE TO NEAR PAH ARND 00Z. AIRMASS RECOVERING BUT IS SLOW WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND RETURNING PCPN. RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE AS AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS VERY HIGH END. COULD
SEE SUPERCELLS LATER NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CWA
AROUND 00Z. ONGOING DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER ALSO
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE SRHELICITY 700+.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

.LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...
.HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS, STREAMS
AND RIVERS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...

SHORT TERM...TRAINING OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS ACROSS WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THESE
HEAVY RAINS ARE FALLING ON GROUNDS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SOAKED BY
REPEATED HEAVY RAIN EPISODES SINCE SUNDAY. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY...INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. RAPID RISES
WILL LIKLEY OCCUR TODAY ALONG SOME AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
THOSE LIVING NEARBY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND LISTEN FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED
(SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW).

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL
START TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPRAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLYAFTERNOON, AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF
THE AIR MASS AND RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GENERATION. EXPECT
ROTATING SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH LONG-
TRACK DANGEROUS TORANDOES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE, WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. SO, ALL PARTS OF THE MID STATE ARE AT RISK
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME DRIER AND COOLER
AIR TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ZIPS
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BUT INCREASINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRYING TREND FOR TUESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MANY AREAS WEST
OF I 65. THE HEAVIEST BAND HAS BEEN MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...AND THIS HAS CAUSED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING. MUCH OF THE NW HAS ALREADY BEEN UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...AND MORE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE NW TO BE HARDEST HIT WITH EVENT TOTALS
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS.

THIS MASS OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MANY AREAS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN.

FALLEN RAIN AND EXPECTED RAINFALL BRING PORT ROYAL ON THE RED RIVER
TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING...SO WE AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT
SITE.

GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING IS IN THE FORECAST ON PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BELOW CHEATHAM DAM...THE HARPETH RIVER BELOW
BELLEVUE...THE DUCK RIVER BELOW CENTERVILLE...THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR
LOBELVILLE...AND SHOAL CREEK NEAR IRON CITY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THESE SITES...AND ANY NEEDED UPGRADES TO WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED TODAY...WITH MOST EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE TRIBUTARIES OF
THESE RIVERS...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST MID TN...BUT WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
TO BE EXPECTED. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE...AND UPGRADES TO
FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TNZ005>011-
022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
447 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
447 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A MODERATE RISK EXISTS
OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE.

LONG TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS, STREAMS AND
RIVERS TO REACH...OR APPROACH...FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER REPORTS
WILL BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ALLARDT             36.38N 84.85W
04/27/2011                   FENTRESS           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN...ONE ON A HOUSE TRAPPING A
            WOMAN INSIDE. ONE QUARTER OF PEOPLE IN EASTERN FENTRESS
            COUNTY ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW LEWISBURG          35.41N 86.84W
04/27/2011                   MARSHALL           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEW LAKE ROAD NEAR JORGENSEN LANE...70 MPH
            WINDS...QUARTER-SIZE HAIL...3 TREES LIFTED OUT OF THE
            GROUND

&&

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 S LAWRENCEBURG        35.14N 87.34W
04/27/2011                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEOPLE TRAPPED IN A HOME BY FLOOD WATERS ALONG HWY 98 IN
            THE CENTERPOINT COMMUNITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              35.47N 86.08W
04/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       COFFEE             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE CITY OF MANCHESTER.

&&

BBOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
128 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND DMG     12 NW SHELBYVILLE       35.61N 86.60W
04/27/2011                   BEDFORD            TN   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN MAINLY IN UNIONVILLE AREA.

&&

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
202 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             LEWISBURG               35.45N 86.79W
04/27/2011  E0.50 INCH       MARSHALL           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BBOYD