River Flood Warning 16, NWS Nashville, TN

186 
WGUS84 KOHX 271817
FLSOHX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TENNESSEE...
 
  HARPETH RIVER NEAR KINGSTON SPRINGS AFFECTING CHEATHAM COUNTY 
  HARPETH RIVER AT BELLEVUE AFFECTING DAVIDSON AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES 
  HARPETH RIVER AT FRANKLIN AFFECTING WILLIAMSON COUNTY 
  RED RIVER NEAR PORT ROYAL AFFECTING MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES 
 
.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL CAUSE AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE AND 
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS THROUGH THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID FLOODED AREAS ALONG THE RIVER...AND MOVE PERSONAL BELONGINGS TO HIGHER 
GROUND. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS AS THE DEPTH OF WATER MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO PASS...EVEN IN TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. IF YOU COME ACROSS A FLOODED
ROAD...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

TNC125-147-280617-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110430T0900Z/
/PORT1.3.ER.110427T1518Z.110428T1200Z.110430T0300Z.NO/
117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/30 04:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER NEAR PORT ROYAL
* UNTIL 04/30 04:00.
* AT 12PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.5 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 44.0 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 38.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL APPROACH THE HOUSING SUBDIVISION AREA OFF THE
  CLARKSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD ROAD.
* AT 35.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL APPROACH PORT ROYAL ROAD ALONG SULPHER FORK 
  CREEK AND THE HIGHWAY 238 BRIDGE.
* AT 33.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL APPROACH THE PORT ROYAL STATE PARK ON HIGHWAY
  238.

$$

TNC021-280616-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0014.110427T2000Z-110429T0800Z/
/KINT1.2.ER.110427T2000Z.110428T0600Z.110429T0200Z.NO/
117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/29 03:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER NEAR KINGSTON SPRINGS
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 04/29 03:00.
* AT 12PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET AND RISING. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 26.5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 26.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF CEDAR HILL ROAD BECOME INUNDATED.
* AT 25.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD TO THE NARROWS OF THE HARPETH STATE PARK BEGINS
  TO BE INUNDATED.
* AT 22.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF MOUND CREEK ROAD BECOME INUNDATED.
* AT 20.0 FEET...FLOODING OF THE KINGSTON SPRINGS CITY PARK BEGINS AND WATER 
  APPROACHES PINNACLE HILL ROAD AND EAST KINGSTONS SPRINGS ROAD. SEVERAL 
  SECONDARY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER BECOME IMPASSABLE.
* AT 18.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS OF THE NARROWS OF THE HARPETH STATE PARK BECOME
  INUNDATED.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL LAND AND BOTTOM LAND ADJACENT TO THE 
  RIVER BEGINS TO BE INUNDATED

$$

TNC037-187-280616-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0015.110428T0300Z-110428T1700Z/
/BELT1.1.ER.110428T0300Z.110428T0600Z.110428T1100Z.NO/
117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/28 12:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER AT BELLEVUE
* FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 04/28 12:00.
* AT 12PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 20.6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 21.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD THE PARKING LOT AT THE HARPETH VALLEY 
  GOLF CENTER.
* AT 20.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOOD THE HARPETH VALLEY GOLF CENTER AND THE 
  ENSWORTH HIGH SCHOOL ATHLETIC FIELDS.
* AT 16.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD AND THE PARKING LOT OF THE HARPETH RIVER STATE 
  PARK ARE COMPLETELY INUNDATED.
* AT 14.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO INUNDATE THE PARKING LOT OF THE HARPETH RIVER 
  STATE PARK AT HIGHWAY 100.

$$

TNC187-280616-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0016.110428T0600Z-110428T1200Z/
/FRAT1.1.ER.110428T0600Z.110428T0600Z.110428T0600Z.NO/
117 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/28 07:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER AT FRANKLIN
* FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL 04/28 07:00.
* AT 12PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE NEAR 30.0 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 30.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PINKERTON PARK BEGINS...INCLUDING WALKING TRAILS 
  AND PICNIC AREAS.
* AT 28.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTIES ADJACENT TO THE RIVER BEGINS NEAR 
  HILLSBORO ROAD AND MACK HATCHER MEMORIAL PARKWAY.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE HARPETH RIVER FROM 
  FRANKLIN TO BELLEVUE. IN FRANKLIN, WATER WILL REACH THE CITY PARK, 4TH STREET,
  AND PORTIONS OF 431.
* AT 23.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO INUNDATE LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE BANKS...
  INCLUDING THE NURSERY AT HILLSBORO ROAD AND FULTON GREER LANE.
* AT 22.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS REACH HIGHWAY 431 (LEWISBURG PIKE) IN FRANKLIN.

$$

803 
WGUS84 KOHX 280214
FLSOHX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TENNESSEE...
 
  HARPETH RIVER AT BELLEVUE AFFECTING DAVIDSON AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
  HARPETH RIVER AT FRANKLIN AFFECTING WILLIAMSON COUNTY
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TENNESSEE...
 
  CUMBERLAND RIVER AT CLARKSVILLE AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY 
  BUFFALO RIVER NEAR LOBELVILLE AFFECTING PERRY COUNTY 
  HARPETH RIVER NEAR KINGSTON SPRINGS AFFECTING CHEATHAM COUNTY 
  RED RIVER NEAR PORT ROYAL AFFECTING MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES 
  GARRISON FORK NEAR WARTRACE AFFECTING BEDFORD COUNTY 
 
.HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREA RIVERS TO RISE...AND WATER LEVELS WILL 
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. LEVELS ON THE HARPETH RIVER FROM FRANKLIN TO 
BELLEVUE ARE CRESTING THIS EVENING...AND LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH 
TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THESE AREAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD 
ADVSIORY. A FLOOD WARNING STILL REMAINS FOR THE KINGSTON SPRINGS AREA...AS 
WELL AS OTHER RIVERS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID FLOODED AREAS ALONG THE RIVER...AND MOVE PERSONAL BELONGINGS TO HIGHER 
GROUND. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS AS THE DEPTH OF WATER MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO PASS...EVEN IN TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. IF YOU COME ACROSS A FLOODED
ROAD...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

TNC125-147-281414-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110430T0000Z/
/PORT1.3.ER.110427T1518Z.110428T1800Z.110429T2200Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/29 19:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RED RIVER NEAR PORT ROYAL
* UNTIL 04/29 19:00.
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.2 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 41.5 FEET TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 38.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL APPROACH THE HOUSING SUBDIVISION AREA OFF THE
  CLARKSVILLE-SPRINGFIELD ROAD.
* AT 35.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL APPROACH PORT ROYAL ROAD ALONG SULPHER FORK 
  CREEK AND THE HIGHWAY 238 BRIDGE.
* AT 33.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL APPROACH THE PORT ROYAL STATE PARK ON HIGHWAY
  238.
* AT 30.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS WILL INUNDATE BOTTOMLAND AND LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
  PORT ROYAL ROAD NEAR PORT ROYAL STATE PARK.

$$

TNC125-281414-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-110430T2100Z/
/CKVT1.2.ER.110428T0150Z.110429T1200Z.110430T1500Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/30 16:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CUMBERLAND RIVER AT CLARKSVILLE
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL 04/30 16:00.
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 45.8 FEET AND RISING. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 46.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 52.6 FEET BY 04/29 07:00. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 49.0 FEET...BOTH BANKS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BEGIN TO OVERFLOW AND 
  SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS ALONG THE RIVER WILL BE COVERED BY FLOOD WATERS.
* AT 46.0 FEET...THE LEFT BANK OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER OVERFLOWS AND FLOODING 
  BEGINS IN CLARKSVILLE.
* AT 40.0 FEET...WATER LEVELS APPROACH LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE BANKS.

$$

TNC135-281414-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110502T0000Z/
/LBVT1.2.ER.110427T1645Z.110429T0600Z.110501T1840Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 05/01 19:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR LOBELVILLE
* UNTIL 05/01 19:00.
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.0 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS COVER ROUTE 438 SOUTH OF LOBELVILLE. EXTENSIVE 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND ALONG THE RIVER IS FLOODED AS WELL.

$$

TNC021-281414-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110429T0600Z/
/KINT1.1.ER.110428T0436Z.110428T1200Z.110429T0100Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/29 01:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER NEAR KINGSTON SPRINGS
* FROM TONIGHT UNTIL 04/29 01:00.
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.5 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 22.0 FEET BY 04/28 07:00. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...THE ACCESS ROAD TO THE NARROWS OF THE HARPETH STATE PARK BEGINS
  TO BE INUNDATED.
* AT 22.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF MOUND CREEK ROAD BECOME INUNDATED.
* AT 20.0 FEET...FLOODING OF THE KINGSTON SPRINGS CITY PARK BEGINS AND WATER 
  APPROACHES PINNACLE HILL ROAD AND EAST KINGSTONS SPRINGS ROAD. SEVERAL 
  SECONDARY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER BECOME IMPASSABLE.
* AT 18.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS OF THE NARROWS OF THE HARPETH STATE PARK BECOME
  INUNDATED.

$$

TNC037-187-280244-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.W.0015.110428T0300Z-110428T0214Z/
/BELT1.1.ER.110428T0300Z.110428T0300Z.110428T0300Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER AT BELLEVUE
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 

$$

TNC187-280244-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.W.0016.110428T0500Z-110428T0214Z/
/FRAT1.1.ER.110428T0500Z.110428T0500Z.110428T0500Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE HARPETH RIVER AT FRANKLIN
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.2 FEET...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET. 

$$

TNC003-281200-
/O.EXT.KOHX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110428T1200Z/
/WTTT1.1.ER.110427T1210Z.110428T0300Z.110428T1038Z.NO/
914 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL 04/28 07:00...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GARRISON FORK NEAR WARTRACE
* UNTIL 04/28 07:00.
* AT 08PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET AND RISING. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* AT 8.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO FLOW OVER THE LOW WATER CROSSING ON BUGSCUFFLE 
  ROAD.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS, STREAMS
AND RIVERS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...

.SHORT TERM...TRAINING OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS ACROSS WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THESE
HEAVY RAINS ARE FALLING ON GROUNDS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SOAKED BY
REPEATED HEAVY RAIN EPISODES SINCE SUNDAY. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY...INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. RAPID RISES
WILL LIKLEY OCCUR TODAY ALONG SOME AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
THOSE LIVING NEARBY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND LISTEN FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED
(SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW).

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL
START TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPRAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLYAFTERNOON, AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF
THE AIR MASS AND RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GENERATION. EXPECT
ROTATING SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH LONG-
TRACK DANGEROUS TORANDOES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE, WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. SO, ALL PARTS OF THE MID STATE ARE AT RISK
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME DRIER AND COOLER
AIR TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ZIPS
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BUT INCREASINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRYING TREND FOR TUESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MANY AREAS WEST
OF I 65. THE HEAVIEST BAND HAS BEEN MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...AND THIS HAS CAUSED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING. MUCH OF THE NW HAS ALREADY BEEN UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...AND MORE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE NW TO BE HARDEST HIT WITH EVENT TOTALS
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS.

THIS MASS OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MANY AREAS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN.

FALLEN RAIN AND EXPECTED RAINFALL BRING PORT ROYAL ON THE RED RIVER
TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING...SO WE AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT
SITE.

GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING IS IN THE FORECAST ON PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BELOW CHEATHAM DAM...THE HARPETH RIVER BELOW
BELLEVUE...THE DUCK RIVER BELOW CENTERVILLE...THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR
LOBELVILLE...AND SHOAL CREEK NEAR IRON CITY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THESE SITES...AND ANY NEEDED UPGRADES TO WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED TODAY...WITH MOST EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE TRIBUTARIES OF
THESE RIVERS...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST MID TN...BUT WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
TO BE EXPECTED. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE...AND UPGRADES TO
FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  51  70  48 / 100  50  10  05
CLARKSVILLE    78  46  68  46 / 100  50  20  20
CROSSVILLE     74  50  63  46 / 100  80  10  05
COLUMBIA       81  52  71  48 / 100  50  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   81  51  69  48 / 100  40  10  05
WAVERLY        79  48  70  47 / 100  50  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
447 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
447 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A MODERATE RISK EXISTS
OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE.

LONG TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS, STREAMS AND
RIVERS TO REACH...OR APPROACH...FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER REPORTS
WILL BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT PLEASANT          35.55N 87.19W
04/27/2011  M62.00 MPH       MAURY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIXTY TWO MILE AN HOUR WIND GUST REPORTED BY A TRAINED
            SPOTTER IN MOUNT PLEASANT.

&&

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAVERLY                 36.09N 87.79W
04/27/2011                   HUMPHREYS          TN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES IN
            WAVERLY AND ALL ACROSS HUMPHREYS COUNTY.

&&

DMASSIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
532 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLINWOOD              35.18N 87.74W
04/27/2011                   WAYNE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWNED ACROSS
            SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

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31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
534 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S LAWRENCEBURG       35.10N 87.34W
04/27/2011                   LAWRENCE           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE STRUCTURES DAMAGED AND NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN
            ALONG HIGHWAY 98, SOUTH OF LAWRENCEBURG.

&&

DMASSIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     TSTM WND DMG     13 S LAWRENCEBURG       35.06N 87.34W
04/27/2011                   LAWRENCE           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TRACTOR TRAILOR PUSHED OVER BY THE WIND ALONG HIGHWAY
            43. IN ADDITION, 8 MILES NORTH OF LAWRENCEBURG, A 30-INCH
            TREE HAS BEEN BLOWN DOWN, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A HOME, WITH A FAMILY TRAPPED
            INSIDE. RESCUERS ARE ON THE SCENE.

&&

DMASSIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
548 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMDEN                  36.06N 88.10W
04/27/2011                   BENTON             TN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS SECONDARY ROADS ACROSS
            THE COUNTY ARE FLOODED.

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DMASSIE