Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1125 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.UPDATE...
MASS OF RAIN/STORMS SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-STATE...
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND AIRMASS FROM BECOMING TOTALLY RECHARGED.
MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH/EAST FOR SEVERE STORMS. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS AND SEVERE THREAT IN UPCOMING UPDATE. RIVER FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH...MAINLY AROUND NASHVILLE AND WEST.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. SFC LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS AR
WILL RACE TO NEAR PAH ARND 00Z. AIRMASS RECOVERING BUT IS SLOW WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND RETURNING PCPN. RECOVERY SHOULD CONTINUE AS AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS VERY HIGH END. COULD
SEE SUPERCELLS LATER NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CWA
AROUND 00Z. ONGOING DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER ALSO
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE SRHELICITY 700+.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

..LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...
..HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS, STREAMS
AND RIVERS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...

SHORT TERM...TRAINING OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS ACROSS WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THESE
HEAVY RAINS ARE FALLING ON GROUNDS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SOAKED BY
REPEATED HEAVY RAIN EPISODES SINCE SUNDAY. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY...INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. RAPID RISES
WILL LIKLEY OCCUR TODAY ALONG SOME AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
THOSE LIVING NEARBY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND LISTEN FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED
(SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW).

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL
START TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPRAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLYAFTERNOON, AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF
THE AIR MASS AND RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GENERATION. EXPECT
ROTATING SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH LONG-
TRACK DANGEROUS TORANDOES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE MID STATE, WHERE SPC HAS PLACED A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL OCCUR AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY. SO, ALL PARTS OF THE MID STATE ARE AT RISK
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME DRIER AND COOLER
AIR TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ZIPS
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY, BUT INCREASINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AREA-WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

LONG TERM...AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRYING TREND FOR TUESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MANY AREAS WEST
OF I 65. THE HEAVIEST BAND HAS BEEN MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
EASTWARD...AND THIS HAS CAUSED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING. MUCH OF THE NW HAS ALREADY BEEN UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...AND MORE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE NW TO BE HARDEST HIT WITH EVENT TOTALS
EXCEEDING 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS.

THIS MASS OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MANY AREAS AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN.

FALLEN RAIN AND EXPECTED RAINFALL BRING PORT ROYAL ON THE RED RIVER
TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING...SO WE AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WARNING FOR THAT
SITE.

GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING IS IN THE FORECAST ON PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BELOW CHEATHAM DAM...THE HARPETH RIVER BELOW
BELLEVUE...THE DUCK RIVER BELOW CENTERVILLE...THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR
LOBELVILLE...AND SHOAL CREEK NEAR IRON CITY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THESE SITES...AND ANY NEEDED UPGRADES TO WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED TODAY...WITH MOST EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE TRIBUTARIES OF
THESE RIVERS...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST MID TN...BUT WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
TO BE EXPECTED. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE...AND UPGRADES TO
FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
447 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
447 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A MODERATE RISK EXISTS
OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE.

LONG TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING... ALONG WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME AREA CREEKS, STREAMS AND
RIVERS TO REACH...OR APPROACH...FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER REPORTS
WILL BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N LAWRENCEBURG        35.29N 87.34W
04/27/2011                   LAWRENCE           TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            NORTHBOUND HIGHWAY 43 BLOCKED BY WATER NORTH OF
            LAWRENCEBURG.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1122 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE WATERTOWN          36.08N 86.11W
04/27/2011                   WILSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 267 ROOFS DAMAGED, TREES DOWN,AND A BARN
            DESTROYED.

&&

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1132 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 AM     DENSE FOG        2 E ALLARDT             36.38N 84.85W
04/27/2011                   FENTRESS           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN...ONE ON A HOUSE TRAPPING A
            WOMAN INSIDE. ONE QUARTER OF PEOPLE IN EASTERN FENTRESS
            COUNTY ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1134 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ALLARDT             36.38N 84.85W
04/27/2011                   FENTRESS           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN...ONE ON A HOUSE TRAPPING A
            WOMAN INSIDE. ONE QUARTER OF PEOPLE IN EASTERN FENTRESS
            COUNTY ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW LEWISBURG          35.41N 86.84W
04/27/2011                   MARSHALL           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEW LAKE ROAD NEAR JORGENSEN LANE...70 MPH
            WINDS...QUARTER-SIZE HAIL...3 TREES LIFTED OUT OF THE
            GROUND

&&

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 S LAWRENCEBURG        35.14N 87.34W
04/27/2011                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEOPLE TRAPPED IN A HOME BY FLOOD WATERS ALONG HWY 98 IN
            THE CENTERPOINT COMMUNITY.

&&