Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON ENDING BY MID
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 CURRENTLY. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES RANGING FROM 300-400
M^2/S^2 ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN RISK...BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENDING BY 7 OR 8PM DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID EVENING WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND OUR COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED SO WILL ATTACH THE DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MED RANGE/LONG TERM LOOKS
TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH THE FOCUS BEING WARM TEMPS AND ABV AVG
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FOR LATE WEEK AND
FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTING RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING...WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION...THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SE US COAST. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ENTRENCHED IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND 60S
DEWPTS. HOT/HUMID WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME AND THE SAVING GRACE
LOOKS TO BE A STEADY PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
BLOWING FOR RELIEF. STARTING WITH THU AND HIGHS AROUND 80S...TEMPS
WILL BUILD EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MID 80S FRI AND UPPER
80S SAT. FOR NOW...FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUN ARE IN THE MID 80S...BUT
COULD EASILY BE WARMER. ACTUALLY DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND THE AREA
COULD SEE TEMPS PUSH 90 DEGREES. ALL THIS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AS 87-90 DEGREES IS THE RANGE OF RECORDS FOR SAT-SUN.

FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE GUID POPS OF 20-30% GOING FOR SUN-MON DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL LEAVE THE REGION BY 02Z. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS WE GO FURTHER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY 03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  65  40  75 /  21   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  66  33  76 /  64   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  78 /  13   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  68  38  77 /  64   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  65  37  75 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    40  65  41  74 /   9   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  65  40  75 /  13   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

15/CME/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM.

VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
A MORE ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BY 8
PM. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
552 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBUS                33.51N 88.40W
04/04/2011                   LOWNDES            MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN LOWNDES COUNTY DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             2 W COLUMBUS            33.51N 88.44W
04/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED WEST OF COLUMBUS

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             2 W COLUMBUS            33.51N 88.44W
04/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED WEST OF COLUMBUS

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PUCKETT                 32.08N 89.78W
04/04/2011                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOTS OF TREES DOWN IN PUCKETT AND CATO AREAS

&&

AGRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
603 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N NATCHEZ             31.65N 91.39W
04/04/2011                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE ROSELAND FOREST AREA...MINOR DAMAGE TO
            ONE RESIDENCE

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
603 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

MSZ044>046-049>052-056>058-042345-
SMITH MS-CLARKE MS-JASPER MS-NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-RANKIN MS-
SCOTT MS-KEMPER MS-LEAKE MS-NESHOBA MS-
603 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM DIXON TO 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PULASKI AT 600 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE STORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN NESHOBA...SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE...SOUTHERN KEMPER...
SCOTT...EAST CENTRAL RANKIN...LAUDERDALE...NEWTON...NORTHERN
JASPER...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CLARKE AND NORTHERN SMITH COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

TORNADO WATCH 96 WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 1 AM.

LAT...LON 3252 8839 3224 8846 3215 8983 3268 8940
      3266 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 270DEG 57KT 3265 8921 3216 8972