Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON ENDING BY MID
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 CURRENTLY. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES RANGING FROM 300-400
M^2/S^2 ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN RISK...BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENDING BY 7 OR 8PM DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID EVENING WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND OUR COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED SO WILL ATTACH THE DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MED RANGE/LONG TERM LOOKS
TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH THE FOCUS BEING WARM TEMPS AND ABV AVG
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FOR LATE WEEK AND
FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTING RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING...WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION...THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SE US COAST. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ENTRENCHED IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND 60S
DEWPTS. HOT/HUMID WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME AND THE SAVING GRACE
LOOKS TO BE A STEADY PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
BLOWING FOR RELIEF. STARTING WITH THU AND HIGHS AROUND 80S...TEMPS
WILL BUILD EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MID 80S FRI AND UPPER
80S SAT. FOR NOW...FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUN ARE IN THE MID 80S...BUT
COULD EASILY BE WARMER. ACTUALLY DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND THE AREA
COULD SEE TEMPS PUSH 90 DEGREES. ALL THIS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AS 87-90 DEGREES IS THE RANGE OF RECORDS FOR SAT-SUN.

FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE GUID POPS OF 20-30% GOING FOR SUN-MON DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL LEAVE THE REGION BY 02Z. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS WE GO FURTHER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY 03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  65  40  75 /  21   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  66  33  76 /  64   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  78 /  13   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  68  38  77 /  64   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  65  37  75 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    40  65  41  74 /   9   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  65  40  75 /  13   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

15/CME/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM.

VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
A MORE ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BY 8
PM. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S VICKSBURG           32.20N 90.87W
04/04/2011  E70 MPH          WARREN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TARVER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
04/04/2011  E1.50 INCH       EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
04/04/2011                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON DUNBARTON RD AND TREE DOWN ON NORTH
            PALESTINE RD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSW GRENADA           33.70N 89.85W
04/04/2011                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON CARROLLTON ROAD

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
453 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TORNADO          4 N ST. JOSEPH          31.98N 91.24W
04/04/2011                   TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** SEVERAL HOUSES WITH ROOFS
            DESTROYED...PARISH WIDE WATER SYSTEM BUILDING SEVERELY
            DAMAGED...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAYS. ONE
            CONFIRMED INJURY. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE VICKSBURG          32.31N 90.85W
04/04/2011                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE UPROOTED WITH POWER LINES DOWN AT WISTERIA ST AND
            LAUREL ST...A SCHOOL BUS ALSO TRAPPED BY POWER LINES DOWN
            AWAITING ASSISTANCE.

&&