Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Jackson, MS

246 
WWUS54 KJAN 042136
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

MSC049-089-163-042200-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-110404T2200Z/
HINDS MS-MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
436 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN YAZOO...MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BENTONIA MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
VAUGHAN...CANTON...WAY...SHARON...FARMHAVEN...CAMERON AND CAMDEN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 8997 3288 8974 3266 8976 3240 9059
      3251 9058 3252 9055 3253 9055 3254 9059
      3255 9059 3255 9064 3259 9065 3260 9067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 268DEG 42KT 3263 9025

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON ENDING BY MID
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 CURRENTLY. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES RANGING FROM 300-400
M^2/S^2 ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN RISK...BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENDING BY 7 OR 8PM DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID EVENING WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND OUR COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED SO WILL ATTACH THE DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MED RANGE/LONG TERM LOOKS
TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH THE FOCUS BEING WARM TEMPS AND ABV AVG
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FOR LATE WEEK AND
FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTING RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING...WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION...THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SE US COAST. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ENTRENCHED IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND 60S
DEWPTS. HOT/HUMID WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME AND THE SAVING GRACE
LOOKS TO BE A STEADY PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
BLOWING FOR RELIEF. STARTING WITH THU AND HIGHS AROUND 80S...TEMPS
WILL BUILD EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MID 80S FRI AND UPPER
80S SAT. FOR NOW...FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUN ARE IN THE MID 80S...BUT
COULD EASILY BE WARMER. ACTUALLY DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND THE AREA
COULD SEE TEMPS PUSH 90 DEGREES. ALL THIS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AS 87-90 DEGREES IS THE RANGE OF RECORDS FOR SAT-SUN.

FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE GUID POPS OF 20-30% GOING FOR SUN-MON DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL LEAVE THE REGION BY 02Z. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS WE GO FURTHER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY 03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  65  40  75 /  21   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  66  33  76 /  64   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  78 /  13   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  68  38  77 /  64   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  65  37  75 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    40  65  41  74 /   9   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  65  40  75 /  13   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

15/CME/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM.

VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
A MORE ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BY 8
PM. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

MSZ025>029-032-037-042020-
GRENADA MS-LEFLORE MS-WEBSTER MS-CARROLL MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
ATTALA MS-
224 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL WERE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI IN A WIDE
EXPANSE AROUND THE INTERSTATE FIFTY-FIVE CORRIDOR AT 222 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ATTALA...NORTHERN CHOCTAW...MONTGOMERY...
CARROLL...WEBSTER...EASTERN LEFLORE AND GRENADA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3387 8951 3373 8949 3374 8904 3343 8912
      3305 8956 3312 8981 3323 8975 3336 9022
      3381 9035 3381 9017 3377 9017 3374 9029
      3370 9028 3370 9027 3374 9024 3373 9014
      3381 9012 3383 8994 3390 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 238DEG 52KT 3352 8996

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
226 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             2 S BASTROP             32.75N 91.91W
04/04/2011  E1.75 INCH       MOREHOUSE          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALONG COLLINSTON ROAD SOUTH OF
            BASTROP

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             MER ROUGE               32.78N 91.79W
04/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

MSZ030-031-033-042055-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-
327 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER CRAIG SPRINGS AT 327 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN OKTIBBEHA...NORTHERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8873 3329 8896 3336 8901 3367 8848
      3369 8838 3354 8826 3353 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 236DEG 50KT 3333 8886

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N WINNSBORO           32.22N 91.72W
04/04/2011                   FRANKLIN           LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS DOCTOR ROGERS ROAD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W WISNER              31.98N 91.76W
04/04/2011                   FRANKLIN           LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWNED IN OLIVE GROVE COMMUNITY OFF HIGHWAY
            562.

&&