Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Jackson, MS

724 
WGUS74 KJAN 050018
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
718 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

MSC049-089-121-050028-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-110405T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-
718 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MADISON...RANKIN
AND HINDS COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3249 9048 3265 9027 3267 9019 3271 9012
      3273 8973 3264 8973 3259 8978 3238 8973
      3212 8973 3211 8979 3210 9069

$$

BK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON ENDING BY MID
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 CURRENTLY. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES RANGING FROM 300-400
M^2/S^2 ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN RISK...BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ENDING BY 7 OR 8PM DEPENDING ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID EVENING WITH A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE EAST. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY
LATER TONIGHT AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND OUR COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED SO WILL ATTACH THE DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MED RANGE/LONG TERM LOOKS
TO BE RATHER QUIET WITH THE FOCUS BEING WARM TEMPS AND ABV AVG
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FOR LATE WEEK AND
FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTING RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING...WILL KEEP PRECIP ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE REGION...THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SE US COAST. THIS WILL PUT OUR
AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ENTRENCHED IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND 60S
DEWPTS. HOT/HUMID WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME AND THE SAVING GRACE
LOOKS TO BE A STEADY PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL KEEP THE WINDS
BLOWING FOR RELIEF. STARTING WITH THU AND HIGHS AROUND 80S...TEMPS
WILL BUILD EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MID 80S FRI AND UPPER
80S SAT. FOR NOW...FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUN ARE IN THE MID 80S...BUT
COULD EASILY BE WARMER. ACTUALLY DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND THE AREA
COULD SEE TEMPS PUSH 90 DEGREES. ALL THIS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AS 87-90 DEGREES IS THE RANGE OF RECORDS FOR SAT-SUN.

FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE GUID POPS OF 20-30% GOING FOR SUN-MON DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL LEAVE THE REGION BY 02Z. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS WE GO FURTHER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY 03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  65  40  75 /  21   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  66  33  76 /  64   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  78 /  13   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  68  38  77 /  64   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  65  37  75 /  13   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    40  65  41  74 /   9   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  65  40  75 /  13   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

15/CME/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
309 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...TORNADOES...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THESE STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM.

VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
A MORE ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BY 8
PM. IN ADDITION...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
418 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W ST. JOSEPH          31.92N 91.32W
04/04/2011                   TENSAS             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCHER REPORTS SENDING AMBULANCES OUT TO HIGHWAY 892
            TO THE WEST OF ST. JOSPEH FOR POSSIBLE INJURIES

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N HARRISONBURG        31.80N 91.82W
04/04/2011                   CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 124

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SICILY ISLAND           31.85N 91.66W
04/04/2011                   CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. ONE LARGE TREE DOWN ON A
            HOUSE.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANGHAM                 32.31N 91.77W
04/04/2011                   RICHLAND           LA   AMATEUR RADIO

            WHEAT CROPS DAMAGED BY HIGH WINDS IN THE AREAS AROUND
            ARCHIE AND MANGHAM

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
04/04/2011                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES ON POWERLINES AT TUCKER RD AND OAK RIDGE AS WELL AS
            A TREE DOWN ON MULVIHILL RD

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S VICKSBURG           32.20N 90.87W
04/04/2011  E70 MPH          WARREN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TARVER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
04/04/2011  E1.50 INCH       EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GERARD