Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
PROVIDING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2145 UTC UPDATE...FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
DUE TO A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOL POOLS
AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OVER NE
TN AT 18Z...SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE MTNS...A LEE TROF SHOULD INCREASE LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY TO LOW CATE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON CHC EAST OF
THE MTNS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE STEADILY AROUND
SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD ASHE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE
FZL MAY REMAIN NEAR 14 KFT...YIELDING A CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26 KFT.
DCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-1400 J/KG. SEVERAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD YIELD
AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BOTH THE SVR THREAT AND FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO.

CLEARING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS AND AROUND AREAS OF RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U60S EAST.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U80S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO
MID 90S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RANGE 1 TO 3 DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE SHOULD TRIGGER TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEFORE THE CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. I WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCHC EAST. AS THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR N. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT OUR
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SEVERAL WEAK
CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY SO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY IS AN
INTERESTING DAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE
DAY. THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO STARTS TO BUCKLE THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE DAY COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. AM THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY WOULD HANG UP
OVER THE MTNS ON SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS OUR POP WOULD BE MORE LIKE
WHAT IS IN THE GFS. HAVE THUS KEPT A DECENT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER
ONTARIO AT 00Z MONDAY AND DIGGING AN UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST.
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES...WE WILL END UP IN A NW FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES. AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE POP
ALTOGETHER...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS ALWAYS FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOVING THE HIGH CENTER PAST TO
OUR N THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SPELL A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER FOR MON-WED.
EARLIER RUNS EVEN SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP AND SOME
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LESS SUPPORT
FROM THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...BUT HAVE STILL CUT A
CATEGORY OFF THE TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE SO EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMTH AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A TS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KCLT...WILL
HAVE A CB IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KAVL HAS A
HIGH CHC FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT...I WILL INDICATE MVFR VIS AT THIS
TIME. FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. I WILL
INDICATE LIGHT SSW WINDS AND SCT VFR LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-102200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
554 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT WITH THE POSSIBLY OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             6 SW VALE               35.48N 81.47W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER HAIL WITH LARGE LIMBS DOWN. FLAG POLE BENT IN
            HALF NEARBY.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE EDGEMONT           35.98N 81.74W
06/09/2011                   CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN ABOUT A MILE FROM THE WILSON CREEK
            VISITORS CENTER AND EVEN MORE TREES DOWN TOWARD TABLE
            ROCK MOUNTAIN.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
06/09/2011  M67 MPH          GREENVILLE         SC   ASOS

            KGMU 58KT GUST

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
544 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ048-049-092230-
MADISON-YANCEY-
544 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND WESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAUST...OR 13 MILES WEST OF BURNSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FAUST...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3589 8236 3580 8266 3596 8277 3600 8261
      3599 8260 3597 8260 3596 8256 3598 8254
      3599 8251 3598 8251 3601 8246

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ057-072-092300-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
612 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 607 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF ROCKWELL...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
SALISBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKWELL...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3548 8030 3542 8034 3543 8050 3555 8049
      3560 8028

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ049-092300-
YANCEY-
621 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM EDT...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3591 8232 3581 8222 3575 8224 3574 8232
      3577 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8237
      3582 8241 3586 8242

MCAVOY