Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

073 
WWUS52 KGSP 092340
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
740 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

SCC047-059-100015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-110610T0015Z/
GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-
740 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN LAURENS AND NORTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 739 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WATERLOO...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENWOOD...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARE SHOALS...
  LAKE GREENWOOD...
  CORONACA AND COKESBURY...

LAT...LON 3433 8233 3435 8233 3441 8225 3443 8226
      3459 8213 3438 8177 3435 8180 3434 8183
      3430 8189 3422 8192 3421 8194 3420 8192
      3419 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 034DEG 4KT 3431 8208

$$

RWH

382 
WWUS52 KGSP 100011
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

SCC047-059-100021-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-110610T0015Z/
GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-
811 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LAURENS AND NORTHERN
GREENWOOD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM EDT...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE WARNING WILL 
EXPIRE ON TIME.

LAT...LON 3433 8233 3435 8233 3441 8225 3443 8226
      3459 8213 3438 8177 3435 8180 3434 8183
      3430 8189 3422 8192 3421 8194 3420 8192
      3419 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 034DEG 4KT 3428 8210

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
PROVIDING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2230 UTC UPDATE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FROM A BLEND OF ADJMAV AND
NAM. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT FOG LATE TONGIHT IN A RAIN
SOAKED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AS CLOUDS DIMINSH WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOL POOLS
AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OVER NE
TN AT 18Z...SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE MTNS...A LEE TROF SHOULD INCREASE LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY TO LOW CATE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON CHC EAST OF
THE MTNS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE STEADILY AROUND
SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD ASHE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE
FZL MAY REMAIN NEAR 14 KFT...YIELDING A CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26 KFT.
DCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-1400 J/KG. SEVERAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD YIELD
AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BOTH THE SVR THREAT AND FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO.

CLEARING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS AND AROUND AREAS OF RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U60S EAST.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U80S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO
MID 90S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RANGE 1 TO 3 DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE SHOULD TRIGGER TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEFORE THE CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. I WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCHC EAST. AS THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR N. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT OUR
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SEVERAL WEAK
CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY SO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY IS AN
INTERESTING DAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE
DAY. THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO STARTS TO BUCKLE THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE DAY COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. AM THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY WOULD HANG UP
OVER THE MTNS ON SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS OUR POP WOULD BE MORE LIKE
WHAT IS IN THE GFS. HAVE THUS KEPT A DECENT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER
ONTARIO AT 00Z MONDAY AND DIGGING AN UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST.
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES...WE WILL END UP IN A NW FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES. AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE POP
ALTOGETHER...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS ALWAYS FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOVING THE HIGH CENTER PAST TO
OUR N THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SPELL A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER FOR MON-WED.
EARLIER RUNS EVEN SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP AND SOME
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LESS SUPPORT
FROM THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...BUT HAVE STILL CUT A
CATEGORY OFF THE TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE SO EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMTH AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY CALM LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDS DIMINISH. A RAIN SOAKED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
MVFR FOG AT A MINIMUM...AND TAF VSBY WAS ADJUSTED TWO MILES BELOW
LOW END GUIDANCE. CIG SHOULD BE VFR UNLESS VSBY GOES MUCH LOWER.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WHILE
LIGHT NORTH WINDS GO CALM. MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS AT A MINIMUM ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN...WITH THE BEST BET FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
KHKY...KGSP AND KGMU WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MOUNTAINS GETTING THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-102200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
554 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT WITH THE POSSIBLY OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARION                  35.68N 82.01W
06/09/2011                   MCDOWELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND MARION. AT LEAST ONE DOWN ON
            RESIDENCE ON LENA ST. CARPORT FLIPPED OVER ON NIX CREEK
            RD.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBY                  35.29N 81.54W
06/09/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN SHELBY VICINITY WITH THE STORM.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             HUNTERSVILLE            35.42N 80.85W
06/09/2011  E0.88 INCH       MECKLENBURG        NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            EMPLOYEES PARENTS REPORT LOTS OF DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
            ON GILEAD RD NEAR US 21.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ENE LAKE LURE         35.48N 82.09W
06/09/2011                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON SARAH LEE RD. HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE IN AREA.
            LIGHTNING STRUCK AN OUTBUILDING AND SET IT ON FIRE.
            ANOTHER TREE DOWN IN UNION MILLS.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
06/09/2011                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN IN RUTHERFORDTON AREA. ONE ON DARLINGTON
            RD AND ONE ON OAK ST. OTHER TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY.

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ026-028-029-092345-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HART-
706 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT...HART AND SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 701 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORTSONIA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3400 8293 3417 8311 3423 8308 3426 8313
      3423 8317 3424 8323 3429 8326 3448 8289
      3437 8284 3424 8274 3415 8272 3413 8267
      3397 8257 3398 8266 3397 8279

RWH