Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX HAS AIDED A CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION MAY DRIFT OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH MID
DAY. CONVECTIVE CU WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MTN RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CU WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO
SHRA AND TSRA...EXPECTED BETWEEN 17Z TO 19Z. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF COOL POOLS. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OVER
EASTERN KY AT 15Z...SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE MTNS...A LEE TROF SHOULD INCREASE LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH U80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS
AND MID 90S EAST.

CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. THE
FZL MAY REMAIN NEAR 14 KFT...YIELDING A CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26 KFT. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS COULD YIELD AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BOTH THE SVR THREAT AND FLOODING THREAT IN
THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
FRIDAY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE SE CONUS AS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO AN
EAST COAST TROFFING PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO FURTHER SQUASH THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. SOME OF THE MODELS
TRY AND DEVELOP A WARM CORE LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST OPTIMISTIC. BY
12Z SUNDAY...IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED 1007MB LOW SE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL AND I DONT EXPECT THE LOW TO ACQUIRE THAT
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION AND NEITHER DOES NHC. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SH
AND TS INCREASES ON SAT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE SETS
UP OVER THE CWA AND LINGERS UNTIL THE WEAK FROPA LATER ON SUN. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE HIGHER NC TERRAIN WITH AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TAP TO
APPROACH THE CWFA ON SUN AND BRING INCREASING POPS OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILE...WITH PW VALUES AROUND BTW APPROX 1 AND 1.6 INCHES ON BOTH
SAT AND SUN. CIN VALUES ARE VERY LOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND
1000+ OVER THE MTS. WHEN COMBINING ALL OF THESE FACTORS...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SAT AND SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF OF THE FRONT WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUSHING THE SFC
FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWFA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THRU DAY 7 AS
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A TS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KCLT...WILL
HAVE A CB IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KAVL HAS A
HIGH CHC FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT...I WILL INDICATE MVFR VIS AT THIS
TIME. FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. I WILL
INDICATE LIGHT SSW WINDS AND SCT VFR LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...THUS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT WITH THE POSSIBLY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N BURNSVILLE          36.03N 82.30W
06/08/2011                   YANCEY             NC   POST OFFICE

            TREE AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN NEAR GREEN MOUNTAIN POST OFFICE
            ON HWY 197 WEST. MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

TBENTHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1148 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW MARS HILL         35.82N 82.58W
06/08/2011                   MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON BULL CREEK ROAD
            JUST SOUTH OF HWY 213, 2-3 MILES WEST OF MARS HILL. DIME
            SIZE HAIL NORTH OF MARS HILL.

&&

TBENTHALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ051-091730-
SWAIN-
1242 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SWAIN COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF SMOKEMONT...OR 14 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BRYSON CITY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3564 8339 3569 8321 3568 8320 3564 8320
      3564 8319 3552 8317 3551 8318 3552 8322
      3552 8325 3552 8337 3562 8341

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ063-064-091715-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1246 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAPPHIRE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE TOXAWAY...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3528 8298 3528 8295 3521 8281 3503 8298
      3503 8300 3508 8313

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             5 SSE ROBBINSVILLE      35.26N 83.77W
06/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRAHAM             NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL SIZE OF QUARTERS OFF OF HARRIS CREEK RD ON CARPENTER
            DR. NICKEL HAIL ON FRANKS CREEK RD.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             2 N SAPPHIRE            35.14N 83.00W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            NC   PUBLIC

            HEAVY DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL. FOX RUN RIDGE RD, 2 MILES N OF SAPPHIRE.

&&

ZHARGROV