Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

287 
WWUS52 KGSP 092036
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCC175-092046-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-110609T2100Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
436 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DISSIPATED.

LAT...LON 3529 8291 3537 8268 3533 8265 3525 8261
      3515 8260 3506 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 002DEG 2KT 3520 8271

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1930 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED NEAR KHKY...KCLT...
KCEU...AND IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT...PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
SKY COVER AND QPF HAVE BEEN INCREASE IN THOSE AERAS AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DSICUSSION...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOL POOLS
AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OVER NE
TN AT 18Z...SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE MTNS...A LEE TROF SHOULD INCREASE LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY TO LOW CATE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON CHC EAST OF
THE MTNS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE STEADILY AROUND
SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD ASHE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE
FZL MAY REMAIN NEAR 14 KFT...YIELDING A CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26 KFT.
DCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-1400 J/KG. SEVERAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD YIELD
AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BOTH THE SVR THREAT AND FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO.

CLEARING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS AND AROUND AREAS OF RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U60S EAST.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U80S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO
MID 90S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RANGE 1 TO 3 DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE SHOULD TRIGGER TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEFORE THE CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. I WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCHC EAST. AS THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR N. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT OUR
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SEVERAL WEAK
CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY SO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY IS AN
INTERESTING DAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE
DAY. THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO STARTS TO BUCKLE THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE DAY COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. AM THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY WOULD HANG UP
OVER THE MTNS ON SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS OUR POP WOULD BE MORE LIKE
WHAT IS IN THE GFS. HAVE THUS KEPT A DECENT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER
ONTARIO AT 00Z MONDAY AND DIGGING AN UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST.
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES...WE WILL END UP IN A NW FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES. AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE POP
ALTOGETHER...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS ALWAYS FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOVING THE HIGH CENTER PAST TO
OUR N THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SPELL A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER FOR MON-WED.
EARLIER RUNS EVEN SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP AND SOME
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LESS SUPPORT
FROM THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...BUT HAVE STILL CUT A
CATEGORY OFF THE TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE SO EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMTH AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A TS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KCLT...WILL
HAVE A CB IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KAVL HAS A
HIGH CHC FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT...I WILL INDICATE MVFR VIS AT THIS
TIME. FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. I WILL
INDICATE LIGHT SSW WINDS AND SCT VFR LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...THUS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT WITH THE POSSIBLY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

SCZ001-002-091915-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
225 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE AND NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALEM...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
PICKENS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NINE TIMES...
  SALEM...
  LAKE KEOWEE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3494 8313 3494 8312 3498 8312 3499 8310
      3500 8311 3508 8278 3507 8278 3507 8276
      3504 8274 3492 8272 3484 8314

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON I-240 AT
            TUNNEL RD.

&&

ZHARGROV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ062-091945-
MACON-
255 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MACON COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF GAY...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRANKLIN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3530 8346 3533 8339 3533 8335 3531 8332
      3527 8331 3527 8332 3524 8330 3511 8338
      3528 8353

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ064-065-092015-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
328 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3525 8251 3516 8249 3516 8255 3515 8256
      3513 8262 3512 8263 3513 8265 3512 8266
      3513 8268 3510 8269 3509 8274 3522 8278

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ068-069-092000-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
337 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF VALE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3557 8143 3556 8137 3544 8137 3544 8155
      3557 8153 3557 8152 3557 8150

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ071-092015-
MECKLENBURG-
339 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR I-77 AT I-85...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF CENTER
CITY CHARLOTTE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING BETWEEN CENTER CITY AND SOUTHPARK MALL.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

I-77 AT I-85 AND CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3515 8073 3515 8094 3536 8094 3537 8075

MCAVOY