Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

225 
WWUS52 KGSP 092003
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCC161-092015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0300.000000T0000Z-110609T2015Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-
403 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY...

AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY...OR 4 MILES SOUTH OF
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3534 8188 3526 8197 3527 8200 3531 8202
      3533 8202 3535 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 321DEG 3KT 3530 8195

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS WILL THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOL POOLS AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. IN
ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...OVER NE TN AT 18Z...SHOULD REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE MTNS...A
LEE TROF SHOULD INCREASE LLVL CONVERGENCE AND RESULT IN SCT
CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY TO LOW
CATE...WITH LATE AFTERNOON CHC EAST OF THE MTNS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
STABILIZE STEADILY AROUND SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD ASHE OUT AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. THE
FZL MAY REMAIN NEAR 14 KFT...YIELDING A CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26 KFT.
DCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-1400 J/KG. SEVERAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD YIELD
AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION BOTH THE SVR THREAT AND FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO.

CLEARING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MTNS VALLEYS AND AROUND AREAS OF RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
THE L60S ACROSS THE MTNS TO U60S EAST.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U80S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO
MID 90S EAST. DEWPOINTS MAY RANGE 1 TO 3 DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY.
CAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE SHOULD TRIGGER TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE BEFORE THE CONVECTION
PUSHES EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. I WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCHC EAST. AS THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY
A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR N. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT OUR
WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SEVERAL WEAK
CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY SO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY IS AN
INTERESTING DAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE
DAY. THE PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO STARTS TO BUCKLE THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE SATURDAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT SLIPS TO THE SOUTH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE DAY COULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. AM THINKING THAT THE BOUNDARY WOULD HANG UP
OVER THE MTNS ON SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS OUR POP WOULD BE MORE LIKE
WHAT IS IN THE GFS. HAVE THUS KEPT A DECENT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER
ONTARIO AT 00Z MONDAY AND DIGGING AN UPPER TROF OFF THE EAST COAST.
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES...WE WILL END UP IN A NW FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...IT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LOW
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES. AM TEMPTED TO REMOVE POP
ALTOGETHER...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A FEW SHOWERS ALWAYS FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING TO REALLY SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOVING THE HIGH CENTER PAST TO
OUR N THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY
FLOW WILL SPELL A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER FOR MON-WED.
EARLIER RUNS EVEN SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP AND SOME
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LESS SUPPORT
FROM THE NEW GUIDANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN...BUT HAVE STILL CUT A
CATEGORY OFF THE TEMPS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE SO EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMTH AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A TS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KCLT...WILL
HAVE A CB IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KAVL HAS A
HIGH CHC FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT...I WILL INDICATE MVFR VIS AT THIS
TIME. FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. I WILL
INDICATE LIGHT SSW WINDS AND SCT VFR LEVEL CU.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH PATCHY EARLY MRNG
FOG...ESP MTN VALLEYS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NW SUN...THEN HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE N EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...THUS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT WITH THE POSSIBLY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             2 N SAPPHIRE            35.14N 83.00W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            NC   PUBLIC

            HEAVY DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL. FOX RUN RIDGE RD, 2 MILES N OF SAPPHIRE.

&&

ZHARGROV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ052-091845-
HAYWOOD-
158 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLYDE...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...
  CANTON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3554 8279 3543 8292 3553 8303 3562 8292

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HAIL             2 S HIGHLANDS           35.03N 83.20W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       MACON              NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON WAHALLA RD APPROX 2.5 MILES SOUTH OF
            HIGHLANDS.

&&

ZHARGROV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

SCZ001-002-091915-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
225 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE AND NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALEM...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
PICKENS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NINE TIMES...
  SALEM...
  LAKE KEOWEE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3494 8313 3494 8312 3498 8312 3499 8310
      3500 8311 3508 8278 3507 8278 3507 8276
      3504 8274 3492 8272 3484 8314

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON I-240 AT
            TUNNEL RD.

&&

ZHARGROV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NCZ062-091945-
MACON-
255 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MACON COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF GAY...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRANKLIN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3530 8346 3533 8339 3533 8335 3531 8332
      3527 8331 3527 8332 3524 8330 3511 8338
      3528 8353

MCAVOY