Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
155 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT PLAN TO STAY WITH CURRENT DEFINITE, LIKELY AND
CHANCE POPS. INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF BY 06Z WED AND THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.  STEERING WINDS AT 7H ARE LIGHT TODAY BUT BY
00Z THE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KTS WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS BY 06Z WED.
BASED ON THIS WOULD EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS
TO DUMP HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES TONIGHT.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA SO WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS WITH
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. SINCE THE SOIL IS NOT
SATURATED AND THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT AS MENTIONED EARLIER DO
NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR A WATCH.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY. MET/MAV GUIDANCE INDICATE ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.
SINCE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FA DO NOT WANT TO
COMPLICATE THE PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT. THE
EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE
HIGHLIGHT. THE ZONES WILL HAVE MENTION OF THE STRONG WIND IN THE
TEXT AND IT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW AND ITS DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST
EAST OF THE FA. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FROM  00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE INDICATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW. SINCE THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
ARE FURTHER NORTH OVER MONTANA THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. ALSO MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IS LACKING SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF RW-.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND THEN COOL TO THE MID/UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS WITH READINGS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 AND THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ZONES WILL ISSUED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1105 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR 06Z TAFS...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS
STRONG TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST BRINGING A LULL TO PRECIP THREAT...BUT AS DEEP
WAA INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF TROUGH EXPECT TO SEE ELEVATED TSRA TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SOME CLEARING AND MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG STORMS STILL EXISTS...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL TOO HIGH FOR SPEC DETAILS FOR TOMORROWS TAFS.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ027-028-041-042-240745-
GREELEY-LOGAN-WALLACE-WICHITA-
222 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...GREELEY
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF SELKIRK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 10151 3881 10127 3853 10154 3863 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0722Z 211DEG 17KT 3867 10158

STASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ028-042-240830-
LOGAN-WICHITA-
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WICHITA
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 257 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF LEOTI...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 10154 3870 10151 3870 10148 3876 10149
      3913 10132 3913 10127 3905 10099 3854 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 202DEG 20KT 3867 10137

STASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
05/24/2011  E0.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

&&

FSTASSER

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