Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
307 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP PV ANOMALY ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTION WAS UNDERWAY NEAR AND OUT AHEAD OF THE PV FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
WAS WELL UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A DEEP SFC
LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-OK PANHANDLE. PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD RESIDES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND FINALLY VERY STRONG WINDS AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

TONIGHT...PRECIP TIMING APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
06Z MUCAPE VALUES BEGIN TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OUR FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200-400
J APPEAR TO HANG ON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF ISO T OUT THIS WAY INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ONE CONCERN
REGARDING THIS EVENINGS PRECIP IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA MAY STABILIZE THINGS A
BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DO BELIEVE THAT SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
PLAY OUT IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS ABUNDANT FORCING
FOR ASCENT AT ALL LOW LEVELS EXISTS WITH PRECIP FILLING BACK IN
AGAIN IN SHORT ORDER. REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MANY LOCATIONS IN THESE SAME
AREAS REPORTED NEAR ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF PRECIP LAST
NIGHT AND WITH 3-HR FLOOD GUIDANCE IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS AT ABOUT
ONE AND A HALF INCHES THOUGHT IT BEST TO GO AHEAD WITH A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 18Z TOMORROW TO COINCIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATES.

TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE H7 LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER NC KANSAS AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
BECOMING NEARLY STACKED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT H85
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 50-55KTS BY 12Z AND WITH PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 5-6MB DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AT LEAST A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY A HIGH WIND
WARNING. WITH OTHER ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THOUGHT IT
BEST TO DEFER TO THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO HOIST THIS WIND
HIGHLIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST AS
GUIDANCE HAS NOT DIFFERED MUCH IN THAT TIME FRAME.

50
&&

.AVIATION...
1108 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VERY COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND SPREAD EASTWARD. SEVERE
WEATHER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...WITH DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD SHORTLY AFTER
START OF THE TAF...AND KMCK AROUND 20Z. EXPECT TSTORMS TO LAST
THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO START...POSSIBLY IFR IN TSTORMS...THEN
BECOMING IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INITIALLY...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45KTS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
AFT 11Z. OF COURSE...WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN AND AROUND TSTORMS.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-
     013>016.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COZ090-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011 /1147 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BY MIDDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS.

A VERY WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WIND AT 25 TO
35 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
342 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDSON                   39.33N 101.54W
05/24/2011                   SHERMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE DOWN HWY 24

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
347 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     EDSON                   39.33N 101.54W
05/24/2011  E80 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
353 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
05/24/2011  M58.00 MPH       LOGAN              KS   MESONET

&&

JMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E KANORADO            39.34N 101.98W
05/24/2011                   SHERMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE DOWN

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
404 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S WHEELER             39.70N 101.71W
05/24/2011                   CHEYENNE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             9 ESE CLARKVILLE        40.33N 102.46W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

CJS