Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.UPDATE...
821 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

UPDATED MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS FOR POP/WX/QPF
AND TEMPS. WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE NOW EAST OF CWA AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MORNING PERIOD.
MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO STILL
ON TRACK TO MOVE E-NE OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE TO PRECIP FORECAST AFTER 18Z. FOR NOW SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK WITH TOR...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 RECEIVING AROUND ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

DR
&&

.DISCUSSION...
155 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT PLAN TO STAY WITH CURRENT DEFINITE, LIKELY AND
CHANCE POPS. INSTABILITY DOES DROP OFF BY 06Z WED AND THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.  STEERING WINDS AT 7H ARE LIGHT TODAY BUT BY
00Z THE WINDS INCREASE TO 15KTS WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS BY 06Z WED.
BASED ON THIS WOULD EXPECT THE GREATEST RISK FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS
TO DUMP HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES TONIGHT.
NATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA SO WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS WITH
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. SINCE THE SOIL IS NOT
SATURATED AND THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT AS MENTIONED EARLIER DO
NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR A WATCH.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WIND ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY. MET/MAV GUIDANCE INDICATE ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.
SINCE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FA DO NOT WANT TO
COMPLICATE THE PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT. THE
EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE
HIGHLIGHT. THE ZONES WILL HAVE MENTION OF THE STRONG WIND IN THE
TEXT AND IT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW AND ITS DYNAMICS WILL BE JUST
EAST OF THE FA. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. CONSEQUENTLY POPS WILL BE NIL FROM  00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE INDICATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW. SINCE THE MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE LOW
ARE FURTHER NORTH OVER MONTANA THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA. ALSO MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE IS LACKING SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF RW-.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A COOLING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND THEN COOL TO THE MID/UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS WITH READINGS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 AND THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

ZONES WILL ISSUED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1108 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VERY COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND SPREAD EASTWARD. SEVERE
WEATHER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...WITH DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD SHORTLY AFTER
START OF THE TAF...AND KMCK AROUND 20Z. EXPECT TSTORMS TO LAST
THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE MVFR TO START...POSSIBLY IFR IN TSTORMS...THEN
BECOMING IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INITIALLY...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45KTS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
AFT 11Z. OF COURSE...WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN AND AROUND TSTORMS.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1047 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011 /1147 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BY MIDDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS.

A VERY WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WIND AT 25 TO
35 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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