Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Goodland, KS

139 
WWUS53 KGLD 240120
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
720 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

KSC063-109-240145-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-110524T0145Z/
LOGAN KS-GOVE KS-
820 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
GOVE AND EASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
SOUTH OF OAKLEY...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THE MONUMENT ROCKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 10107 3913 10089 3875 10040 3869 10054
      3869 10095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 304DEG 21KT 3896 10084
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN
$$

024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
259 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ONSHORE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WAS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST FOCUS IS CENTERED ON INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. STRONG H85 NOCTURNAL JET WITH
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESS...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
PUSHING 2000 J/KG. BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE SUB 1KM LCL
VALUES. PER THE NAM...NARROW AXIS OF 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF
150-200 M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO QUINTER.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS A DEFINITE CONCERN AS MIXING RATIOS
OF 12-14 G/KG WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE ROUGHLY TWO
INCHES OF PRECIP WOULD BE NEEDED OVER A SIX HOUR PERIOD TO
GENERATE HYDRO CONCERNS. GIVEN LONGER DURATION OF THIS
EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH
IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME ONE BE TO HAVE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WIND ADVISORY
APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS.

MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
BROADER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY SUNDAY. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO
TEMPS ON MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. OPERATIONAL GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. MEANWHILE...THE EC HOLDS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT BACK TO THE WEST RESULTING IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MID 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. GIVEN THIS
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GEFS MEAN
RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
506 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD
TO BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...AS WELL AS A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE PREVAILING DIRECTION. AS A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO MVFR AND LATER IFR...AND MODERATE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY. BY MID MORNING...THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AND BE MORE LIKELY AT KMCK THAN KGLD.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
644 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011 /744 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEING THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT. THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT THAT WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             6 N ATWOOD              39.90N 101.04W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             11 N ATWOOD             39.97N 101.04W
05/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             14 N ATWOOD             40.01N 101.04W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             6 N WINONA              39.15N 101.25W
05/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             7 SSE TRENTON           40.08N 100.96W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
640 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             MONUMENT                39.10N 101.00W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MENTZER