Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Goodland, KS

923 
WWUS53 KGLD 240731
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

COC063-240742-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110524T0800Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
131 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3957 10254 3924 10221 3903 10271 3904 10278
      3945 10302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 224DEG 20KT 3940 10260
$$

STASSER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
259 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ONSHORE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WAS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST FOCUS IS CENTERED ON INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. STRONG H85 NOCTURNAL JET WITH
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESS...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
PUSHING 2000 J/KG. BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE SUB 1KM LCL
VALUES. PER THE NAM...NARROW AXIS OF 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF
150-200 M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO QUINTER.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS A DEFINITE CONCERN AS MIXING RATIOS
OF 12-14 G/KG WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE ROUGHLY TWO
INCHES OF PRECIP WOULD BE NEEDED OVER A SIX HOUR PERIOD TO
GENERATE HYDRO CONCERNS. GIVEN LONGER DURATION OF THIS
EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH
IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME ONE BE TO HAVE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WIND ADVISORY
APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS.

MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
BROADER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY SUNDAY. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO
TEMPS ON MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. OPERATIONAL GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. MEANWHILE...THE EC HOLDS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT BACK TO THE WEST RESULTING IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MID 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. GIVEN THIS
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GEFS MEAN
RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1105 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR 06Z TAFS...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS
STRONG TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST BRINGING A LULL TO PRECIP THREAT...BUT AS DEEP
WAA INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF TROUGH EXPECT TO SEE ELEVATED TSRA TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SOME CLEARING AND MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG STORMS STILL EXISTS...BUT UNCERTAINTY
STILL TOO HIGH FOR SPEC DETAILS FOR TOMORROWS TAFS.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
644 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011 /744 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEING THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT. THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT THAT WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
838 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-240315-
CHEYENNE-KIT CARSON COUNTY-SHERMAN-YUMA COUNTY-
838 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 837 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BONNY RESERVOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 10185 3946 10169 3932 10223 3970 10242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 238DEG 17KT 3955 10216

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
906 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             KANORADO                39.34N 102.04W
05/23/2011  E0.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0522 PM     HAIL             6 N ATWOOD              39.90N 101.04W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0539 PM     HAIL             11 N ATWOOD             39.97N 101.04W
05/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0546 PM     HAIL             14 N ATWOOD             40.01N 101.04W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0616 PM     HAIL             6 N WINONA              39.15N 101.25W
05/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0623 PM     HAIL             7 SSE TRENTON           40.08N 100.96W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0638 PM     HAIL             MONUMENT                39.10N 101.00W
05/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JMARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1238 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

COZ091-240715-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
1238 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 1235 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEIBERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10292 3957 10266 3947 10252 3916 10288
      3938 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 221DEG 25KT 3935 10293

STASSER