Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE...THE
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THE
WIND SHIFT BACK TO SOUTH FLOW ON TUESDAY.

THE DRY LINE CONTINUES TO LIFT BACK NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. WE EXPECT A LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES AROUND 06Z AND SHORTLY AFTER IN WACO. THE WIND WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE BETWEEN
10 AND 13 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AND
RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN WACO AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT ALL SITES. ANY LOW
CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OUT OF THE TAFS AS
FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE WEAK. THERE IS
STILL A POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011/
HIGH END SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY..WITH
TORNADO WATCHES COVERING ALL AREAS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE. MIDDAY SOUNDING SHOWS ALMOST 5000 JOULES OF CAPE...THE
MOST WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE.

COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WILL SHUT OFF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST...BUT
ON TUESDAY THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL COVER EASTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND AS FRONT RETREATS NORTH THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR STORMS IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY AND THE STORM THREAT
SHUTS OFF FROM THE WEST AGAIN. BY MID DAY NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE DONE
WITH STORMS FOR A FEW DAYS.

EXPECT A DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND SOME SUBSIDENCE...AND THUS A
CAP...THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT FRONT PUSHES IN SATURDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE LOW POPS FOR THAT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  85  57  76  51 /  30  10  20   5   5
WACO, TX              64  93  57  82  48 /  40  20  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             62  80  55  72  49 /  50  20  40  30   5
DENTON, TX            58  83  53  75  46 /  30  10  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          59  84  55  75  48 /  40  10  30  10   5
DALLAS, TX            59  86  57  77  53 /  30  10  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           62  84  55  77  48 /  40  20  30  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  88  57  80  49 /  50  20  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            66  95  58  85  48 /  40  20  20   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  88  53  77  46 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

79/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
731 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-270045-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
731 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 TONIGHT.

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