Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH
ALL ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST. CAPE VALUES IN WARM SECTOR ARE
OVER 4000 JOULES...AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR FRONT ARE
ABOVE 300. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TODAY...WARM FRONT SHOULD
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND DRY LINE SHOULD PUSH EAST. TRIPLE POINT
INITIALLY NEAR BOSQUE COUNTY SHOULD PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. BEST SPOT FOR INITIAL CONVECTION IS NEAR TRIPLE POINT
SOUTH OF METROPLEX. STORM MOTION IS NORTHEAST...WITH RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THEM IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND/OR WIDESPREAD
HAIL.

BY EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE...ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. NO CHANGES FOR REST OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.   84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  71  53  78  59 /  30   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              66  79  52  82  58 /  20   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             63  68  48  75  54 /  60  20   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            57  70  48  78  58 /  30   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          61  70  49  78  56 /  50  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  72  53  77  60 /  40   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           64  72  51  77  57 /  50  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         67  78  54  78  58 /  30   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            65  81  53  82  57 /  20   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  73  50  78  58 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
155 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL 10 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WEATHERFORD TO BOWIE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST OF A CISCO TO MERIDIAN TO GATESVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TXZ145-262000-
HILL TX-
237 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY

AT 236 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUM...COVINGTON...ITASCA...
WHITNEY AND LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3222 9736 3225 9719 3219 9708 3188 9732
      3193 9743 3194 9742 3198 9739 3202 9743
      3202 9747
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 228DEG 41KT 3201 9735

85/NH