Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.AVIATION...
21Z UPDATES TO INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA FOR GKY AND DAL FOR THE SHORT
TERM BASED ON DEVELOPMENT AND TRAJECTORY OF RECENTLY-DEVELOPED
SEVERE STORMS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE INITIATING NEAR SFC BOUNDARY.
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL OTHER SITES EXCEPT AFW WHICH APPEARS TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF AXIS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBILITY
EXIST OF ELEVATED STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECASTS
JUST YET...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM AND ADDRESS IT LATER
IF NEED BE.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH
ALL ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST. CAPE VALUES IN WARM SECTOR ARE
OVER 4000 JOULES...AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR FRONT ARE
ABOVE 300. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS TODAY...WARM FRONT SHOULD
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND DRY LINE SHOULD PUSH EAST. TRIPLE POINT
INITIALLY NEAR BOSQUE COUNTY SHOULD PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. BEST SPOT FOR INITIAL CONVECTION IS NEAR TRIPLE POINT
SOUTH OF METROPLEX. STORM MOTION IS NORTHEAST...WITH RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THEM IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND/OR WIDESPREAD
HAIL.

BY EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE...ENDING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. NO CHANGES FOR REST OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT SYSTEM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.   84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  71  53  78  59 /  30   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              66  79  52  82  58 /  20   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             63  68  48  75  54 /  60  20   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            57  70  48  78  58 /  30   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          61  70  49  78  56 /  50  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            63  72  53  77  60 /  40   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           64  72  51  77  57 /  50  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         67  78  54  78  58 /  30   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            65  81  53  82  57 /  20   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  73  50  78  58 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
155 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
155 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS UNTIL 10 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO WEATHERFORD TO BOWIE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST OF A CISCO TO MERIDIAN TO GATESVILLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             CUMBY                   33.15N  95.85W
04/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       HOPKINS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CUMBY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             LACY-LAKEVIEW           31.62N  97.10W
04/26/2011  E2.75 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL HAIL REPORTED IN LACY-LAKEVIEW BY THE PUBLIC.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             PARIS                   33.65N  95.53W
04/26/2011  U1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WEST SIDE OF PARIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             BLOSSOM                 33.67N  95.38W
04/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BLOSSOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             MART                    31.53N  96.83W
04/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR