Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 19, 2011Bates County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Aug 19, 2011, 1:16 AM CDT for Bates County, Missouri. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 19, 2011, 1:16 AM CDT (06:16 UTC)
Expired: Aug 19, 2011, 2:00 AM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Bates County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3749 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 193 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.3
Supercell composite: 17.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 19, 12:32 AM CDT, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 12:32 AM CDT, 44 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED WITH THESE STORMS THUS
FAR WITH UPWARD OF SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CURRENT AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IN PLACE...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHOULD A WELL DEVELOPED MCS ORGANIZE...AN
ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ROUGH
TIMING WOULD BRING THIS COMPLEX ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI STATE LINE
NEAR 00Z AND ROUGHLY TO A KANSAS CITY TO CHILLICOTHE LINE BY 03Z.
LATEST PROGS INDICATE INGREDIENTS TO BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE
COMPLEX INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL
COMPLEX AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AIDING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MUCAPE VALUES. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAIRLY QUIET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
OUT WEST AS THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

MODELS IN MODEST DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE SO WILL
RELY ON MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.  THAT SAID...LARGEST DIFFERENCE
IN THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
SYNOPTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON SUNDAY.  FEEL THAT THIS
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT POPS
COULD BE REMOVED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SOME
SIGNALS APPEAR THAT LEFT OVER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO CUT UNDER THE RIDGE BY MONDAY PULLING MOISTURE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP BACK TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS AS USUAL MORE BULLISH IN THIS
REGARDS...WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF SLOWER. GEFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE.

THIS SAID...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TUE/WED AS GEFS/NAEFS SUPPORT
INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
RATHER BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  LINGERING MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WELL
AS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE PAST
2 HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS IN KANSAS CITY FOR THE
REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER THE WAKE LOW WINDS BEHIND THIS
LINE OF STORMS CALM DOWN...EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MIGHT HAVE MORE STORMS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME AT THE TERMINALS
IS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 6:24 PM CDT, 6 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL EVOLVE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE STORMS MAY AT LEAST
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BEUSTERIEN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 19, 12:01 AM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE OLATHE            38.87N 94.75W
08/18/2011  E60 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 19, 12:06 AM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     RICHMOND                39.28N 93.97W
08/19/2011  E60.00 MPH       RAY                MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH. 2 TO
            3 INCH TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED OFF.

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 19, 12:10 AM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW BUCYRUS           38.77N 94.75W
08/18/2011  M86 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   MESONET

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 19, 12:11 AM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEXINGTON               39.18N 93.87W
08/19/2011  E65 MPH          LAFAYETTE          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 19, 12:43 AM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARRENSBURG             38.76N 93.73W
08/18/2011                   JOHNSON            MO   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN WARRENSBURG

&&

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 1:16 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ057-060-MOZ053-054-190700-
BATES MO-HENRY MO-LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
116 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LINN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND
BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 113 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DREXEL TO 9 MILES
EAST OF LA CYGNE TO PLEASANTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ADRIAN...RICH HILL...BUTLER...HUME...WORLAND...FOSTER...PASSAIC...
  BALLARD AND ROCKVILLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3804 9424 3805 9426 3806 9461 3803 9462
      3803 9487 3833 9468 3853 9466 3852 9461
      3848 9461 3848 9441 3840 9406 3821 9399
      3821 9405 3803 9406 3805 9416 3804 9419
      3805 9421 3802 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 300DEG 41KT 3845 9459 3828 9457
          3811 9467

MJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 18, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	29 min
Aug 18, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Gentry, Nodaway	32 min
Aug 18, 7:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison, Worth	29 min
Aug 18, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway	24 min
Aug 18, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy and 3 more	46 min
Aug 18, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	51 min
Aug 18, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell	30 min
Aug 18, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth	38 min
Aug 18, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 2 more	45 min
Aug 18, 10:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	42 min
Aug 18, 10:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 1 more	46 min
Aug 18, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte	33 min
Aug 18, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton, Platte	32 min
Aug 18, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Jackson and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 11:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Clay, Platte	6 hr
Aug 18, 11:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	45 min
Aug 18, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	37 min
Aug 18, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Jackson, Johnson and 4 more	48 min
Aug 19, 12:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Jackson	6 hr
Aug 19, 12:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Johnson	56 min
Aug 19, 12:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and 2 more	59 min
Aug 19, 12:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson	42 min
Aug 19, 12:42 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Bates, Cass, Cooper, Henry, Johnson, Pettis	5 hr
Aug 19, 12:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Pettis	46 min
Aug 19, 1:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Saline	26 min
Aug 19, 1:24 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	36 min
Aug 19, 1:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	31 min
Aug 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	7 hr
Aug 19, 11:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	22 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.