Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 18, 20119 counties in Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2011, 8:14 PM CDT for 9 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 46 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 18, 2011, 8:14 PM CDT (01:14 UTC)
Expired: Aug 18, 2011, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 100.0 mph

Counties Caldwell County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Ray County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 18, 8:18 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	5 Ssw Pattonsburg, MO	2ND STORY WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE
Aug 18, 8:21 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Coffey, MO	POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF
Aug 18, 8:31 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Winston, MO	* 2 INJ * GAS STATION AWNING BLOWN DOWN. INJURIES IN A CAR UNDERNEATH THE AWNING.
Aug 18, 8:31 PM CDT	NON-TSTM WND DMG	Winston, MO	GAS STATION AWNING BLOWN DOWN
Aug 18, 8:36 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Winston, MO	ROOF DAMAGE AND 40 FOOT TOWER BLOWN OVER

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 18, 6:38 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr
Aug 18, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3749 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 193 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.3
Supercell composite: 17.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

458 
WUUS53 KEAX 190114
SVREAX
MOC025-049-061-063-075-079-081-117-177-190200-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0311.110819T0114Z-110819T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
814 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTH CENTRAL RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS
  LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF MAYSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CAMERON...GALLATIN...HAMILTON...PATTONSBURG...JAMESPORT...
  KINGSTON...POLO...BRECKENRIDGE...COWGILL...SANTA ROSA...
  WEATHERBY...COFFEY...WINSTON...JAMESON...ALTAMONT...KIDDER...LOCK
  SPRINGS...SPRING HILL AND MOORESVILLE.

AT 748 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ESTIMATED STRONG DAMAGING WINDS 
OF 90 MPH ALONG HWY 136 AT THE NODAWAY AND GENTRY COUNTY LINE. 
TORNADO LIKE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW IF 
YOU ARE IN THE PATH!!!

IN ADDITION...AT 754 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED STRAIGHT 
LINE WIND DAMAGE 2 MILES WEST OF STANBERRY. AT 759 PM...LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A 65 MPH WIND GUST SOUTH OF TANBERRY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS 
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9348 3942 9396 4001 9461 4007 9461
      4031 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 308DEG 42KT 3999 9426
WIND...HAIL 100MPH 1.50IN

$$

DEROCHE

4 follow-up statements

980 
WWUS53 KEAX 190130
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
830 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

MOC025-049-061-063-075-079-081-117-177-190200-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-110819T0200Z/
CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DEKALB MO-GENTRY MO-GRUNDY MO-
HARRISON MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
830 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
RAY...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN
GRUNDY...SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY...NORTHEASTERN DEKALB...DAVIESS...
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON AND CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 826 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH...AND PING 
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF 
GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 812 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE WIND 
DAMAGE IN MCFALL. TORNADO LIKE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. 
TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH!!!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GALLATIN...HAMILTON...JAMESPORT...KINGSTON...POLO...BRECKENRIDGE...
  COWGILL...BRAYMER...KIDDER...LOCK SPRINGS...SPRING HILL AND
  MOORESVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS 
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4022 9417 3990 9348 3942 9396 3992 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 308DEG 42KT 3987 9406
WIND...HAIL 100MPH 1.50IN

$$

DEROCHE

088 
WWUS53 KEAX 190139
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

MOC075-081-190148-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-110819T0200Z/
GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-
839 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3990 9348 3942 9396 3980 9437 4014 9404
      4013 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 308DEG 42KT 3980 9395

$$

MOC025-049-061-063-079-117-177-190200-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-110819T0200Z/
CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DEKALB MO-GRUNDY MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
RAY MO-
839 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
RAY...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY...SOUTHEASTERN
DEKALB...DAVIESS...NORTHEASTERN CLINTON AND CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 835 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF 
HAMILTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 821 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE WIND 
DAMAGE IN COFFEY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KINGSTON...POLO...BRECKENRIDGE...COWGILL...BRAYMER...LOCK
  SPRINGS...SPRING HILL AND MOORESVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS 
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9348 3942 9396 3980 9437 4014 9404
      4013 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 308DEG 42KT 3980 9395
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

DEROCHE

656 
WWUS53 KEAX 190148
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
848 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

MOC063-079-190157-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-110819T0200Z/
DEKALB MO-GRUNDY MO-
848 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND
SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4001 9376 3996 9376 3996 9364 3990 9348
      3942 9396 3973 9429 3975 9426 3975 9421
      3980 9421 4006 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 312DEG 29KT 3976 9394

$$

MOC025-049-061-117-177-190200-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-110819T0200Z/
CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
848 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
RAY...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...NORTHEASTERN
CLINTON AND CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 845 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
HAMILTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KINGSTON...BRECKENRIDGE...POLO...BRAYMER...COWGILL...LOCK
  SPRINGS...SPRING HILL AND MOORESVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. THIS 
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9376 3996 9376 3996 9364 3990 9348
      3942 9396 3973 9429 3975 9426 3975 9421
      3980 9421 4006 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 312DEG 29KT 3976 9394
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DEROCHE

957 
WWUS53 KEAX 190157
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
857 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

MOC025-049-061-117-177-190206-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-110819T0200Z/
CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
857 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL RAY...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...NORTHEASTERN CLINTON
AND CALDWELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.


LAT...LON 4001 9376 3996 9376 3996 9364 3990 9348
      3942 9396 3973 9429 3975 9426 3975 9421
      3980 9421 4006 9390
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 312DEG 29KT 3971 9387

$$

DEROCHE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 4 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 4 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED WITH THESE STORMS THUS
FAR WITH UPWARD OF SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CURRENT AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IN PLACE...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHOULD A WELL DEVELOPED MCS ORGANIZE...AN
ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ROUGH
TIMING WOULD BRING THIS COMPLEX ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI STATE LINE
NEAR 00Z AND ROUGHLY TO A KANSAS CITY TO CHILLICOTHE LINE BY 03Z.
LATEST PROGS INDICATE INGREDIENTS TO BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE
COMPLEX INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL
COMPLEX AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AIDING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MUCAPE VALUES. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAIRLY QUIET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
OUT WEST AS THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

MODELS IN MODEST DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE SO WILL
RELY ON MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.  THAT SAID...LARGEST DIFFERENCE
IN THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
SYNOPTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON SUNDAY.  FEEL THAT THIS
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT POPS
COULD BE REMOVED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SOME
SIGNALS APPEAR THAT LEFT OVER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO CUT UNDER THE RIDGE BY MONDAY PULLING MOISTURE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP BACK TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS AS USUAL MORE BULLISH IN THIS
REGARDS...WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF SLOWER. GEFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE.

THIS SAID...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TUE/WED AS GEFS/NAEFS SUPPORT
INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
RATHER BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  LINGERING MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WELL
AS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA. THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING
ON TIMING AND HAVE KEPT PERSISTENCE AS A DECENT COMPROMISE. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE MORNING HOURS.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 6:24 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL EVOLVE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE STORMS MAY AT LEAST
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BEUSTERIEN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 18, 7:45 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
745 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E ARKOE               40.26N 94.77W
08/18/2011  E70 MPH          NODAWAY            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH.

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 18, 7:55 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
755 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             5 N STANBERRY           40.29N 94.54W
08/18/2011  M1.00 INCH       GENTRY             MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 18, 7:57 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
757 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W STANBERRY           40.22N 94.58W
08/18/2011                   GENTRY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            BARN DESTROYED

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Aug 18, 7:58 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
758 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             PICKERING               40.45N 94.84W
08/18/2011  E1.25 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 18, 8:01 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
801 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND GST     STANBERRY               40.22N 94.54W
08/18/2011  E65 MPH          GENTRY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Aug 18, 8:11 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
811 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E CONCEPTION          40.24N 94.65W
08/18/2011                   NODAWAY            MO   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 136. THUNDERSTORM
            WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH.

&&

GAMIS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 18, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	29 min
Aug 18, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Gentry, Nodaway	32 min
Aug 18, 7:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison, Worth	29 min
Aug 18, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway	24 min
Aug 18, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	51 min
Aug 18, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell	30 min
Aug 18, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth	38 min
Aug 18, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 2 more	45 min
Aug 18, 10:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	42 min
Aug 18, 10:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 1 more	46 min
Aug 18, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte	33 min
Aug 18, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton, Platte	32 min
Aug 18, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Jackson and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 11:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Clay, Platte	6 hr
Aug 18, 11:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	45 min
Aug 18, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	37 min
Aug 18, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Jackson, Johnson and 4 more	48 min
Aug 19, 12:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Jackson	6 hr
Aug 19, 12:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Johnson	56 min
Aug 19, 12:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and 2 more	59 min
Aug 19, 12:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson	42 min
Aug 19, 12:42 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Bates, Cass, Cooper, Henry, Johnson, Pettis	5 hr
Aug 19, 12:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Pettis	46 min
Aug 19, 1:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Bates	44 min
Aug 19, 1:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Saline	26 min
Aug 19, 1:24 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	36 min
Aug 19, 1:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	31 min
Aug 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	7 hr
Aug 19, 11:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	22 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.