Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Kansas City, MO

210 
WWUS53 KEAX 190550
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSC107-121-MOC013-037-083-101-190615-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-110819T0615Z/
MIAMI KS-LINN KS-BATES MO-CASS MO-HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-
1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LINN AND
SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND JOHNSON...
HENRY...SOUTHERN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS 
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM LA MONTE TO CLINTON TO ADRIAN TO FONTANA TO 6 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF PARKER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL 
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A 
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE GREATER 
KANSAS CITY AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LA CYGNE...CLINTON...WINDSOR...BUTLER...MOUND CITY...PLEASANTON...
  RICH HILL...CALHOUN...BLUE MOUND...MONTROSE...DEEPWATER...
  PRESCOTT...HUME...BALLARD...AMSTERDAM...PASSAIC...LA DUE...
  AMORET...WORLAND AND FOSTER.

AT 1235 AM...OFFICIAL WEATHER INSTRUMENTATION MEASURED A 63 MPH WIND 
GUST 4 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WARRENSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3847 9507 3852 9460 3859 9431
      3891 9390 3893 9350 3851 9352 3820 9383
      3821 9405 3804 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 318DEG 33KT 3872 9346 3838 9382
          3837 9442 3837 9489 3825 9505
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.88IN

$$

MJ

756 
WWUS53 KEAX 190614
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
114 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSC107-121-MOC013-037-083-101-190624-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0324.000000T0000Z-110819T0615Z/
MIAMI KS-LINN KS-BATES MO-CASS MO-HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-
114 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINN AND SOUTHERN MIAMI
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND JOHNSON...HENRY...SOUTHERN CASS
AND BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM
CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3804 9508 3847 9507 3852 9460 3859 9431
      3891 9390 3893 9350 3851 9352 3820 9383
      3821 9405 3804 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 318DEG 33KT 3854 9327 3821 9363
          3820 9423 3820 9469 3808 9486

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED WITH THESE STORMS THUS
FAR WITH UPWARD OF SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CURRENT AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IN PLACE...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHOULD A WELL DEVELOPED MCS ORGANIZE...AN
ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ROUGH
TIMING WOULD BRING THIS COMPLEX ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI STATE LINE
NEAR 00Z AND ROUGHLY TO A KANSAS CITY TO CHILLICOTHE LINE BY 03Z.
LATEST PROGS INDICATE INGREDIENTS TO BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE
COMPLEX INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL
COMPLEX AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AIDING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MUCAPE VALUES. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAIRLY QUIET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
OUT WEST AS THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

MODELS IN MODEST DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE SO WILL
RELY ON MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.  THAT SAID...LARGEST DIFFERENCE
IN THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
SYNOPTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON SUNDAY.  FEEL THAT THIS
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT POPS
COULD BE REMOVED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SOME
SIGNALS APPEAR THAT LEFT OVER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO CUT UNDER THE RIDGE BY MONDAY PULLING MOISTURE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP BACK TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS AS USUAL MORE BULLISH IN THIS
REGARDS...WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF SLOWER. GEFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE.

THIS SAID...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TUE/WED AS GEFS/NAEFS SUPPORT
INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
RATHER BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  LINGERING MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WELL
AS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA. THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING
ON TIMING AND HAVE KEPT PERSISTENCE AS A DECENT COMPROMISE. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE MORNING HOURS.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL EVOLVE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE STORMS MAY AT LEAST
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BEUSTERIEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRAYMER                 39.59N 93.80W
08/18/2011  E65 MPH          CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

&&

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE ST JOSEPH          39.81N 94.80W
08/18/2011                   BUCHANAN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            MISSOURI HIGHWAY PATROL TOWER BLOWN DOWN

&&

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE OLATHE            38.87N 94.75W
08/18/2011  E60 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1206 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     RICHMOND                39.28N 93.97W
08/19/2011  E60.00 MPH       RAY                MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH. 2 TO
            3 INCH TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED OFF.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW BUCYRUS           38.77N 94.75W
08/18/2011  M86 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   MESONET

&&

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEXINGTON               39.18N 93.87W
08/19/2011  E65 MPH          LAFAYETTE          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SF