Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 18, 201110 counties in Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2011, 11:57 PM CDT for 10 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 48 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 18, 2011, 11:57 PM CDT (04:57 UTC)
Expired: Aug 19, 2011, 12:45 AM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 19, 12:00 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	Richmond, MO	THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH. 2 TO 3 INCH TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED OFF.
Aug 19, 12:08 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 65	Lexington, MO
Aug 19, 12:33 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Warrensburg, MO	18-20 INCH DIAMETER TREE
Aug 19, 12:35 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 63	4 Wnw Warrensburg, MO
Aug 19, 12:35 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 63	4 Wnw Warrensburg, MO

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 3 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 18, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3749 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 193 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.3
Supercell composite: 17.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

361 
WUUS53 KEAX 190457
SVREAX
MOC025-033-041-047-095-101-107-117-177-195-190545-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0323.110819T0457Z-110819T0545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  EAST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  WESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1148 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED WINDS OF 65 MPH IN 
BRAYMER.  THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH 
OF HALE TO OAK GROVE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ODESSA...CARROLLTON...HIGGINSVILLE...CONCORDIA...WARRENSBURG...
  NORBORNE...MAYVIEW...BOSWORTH...WAVERLY...CORDER...ALMA...
  BLACKBURN...MALTA BEND...DOVER...WAKENDA...AULLVILLE...GRAND
  PASS...DE WITT...FAYETTEVILLE AND MIAMI.

AT 1125 PM...AIRPLANE PILOT A 70 MPH WIND GUST 3 MILES WEST OF 
INDEPENDENCE.
AT 1131 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A 65 MPH WIND GUST IN
GLADSTONE.
AT 1145 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A 80 MPH WIND GUST 3
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROELAND PARK.
AT 1148 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A 65 MPH WIND GUST IN BRAYMER.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9346 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3931 9434 3973 9351 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 322DEG 32KT 3967 9330 3901 9407
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

ACH

4 follow-up statements

153 
WWUS53 KEAX 190511
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MOC025-033-041-047-095-101-107-117-177-195-190545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110819T0545Z/
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-
LAFAYETTE MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-SALINE MO-
1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SALINE
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON...
SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON...CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES IN
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND RAY...LAFAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF HALE TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF ODESSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HIGGINSVILLE...CONCORDIA...WARRENSBURG...WAVERLY...CORDER...ALMA...
  BLACKBURN...MALTA BEND...WAKENDA...AULLVILLE...GRAND PASS...DE
  WITT...FAYETTEVILLE...MIAMI...MOUNT LEONARD AND EMMA.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 66.

AT 1200 AM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A E60.00 MPH WIND GUST
IN RICHMOND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9346 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3931 9434 3973 9351 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 322DEG 32KT 3956 9319 3891 9397
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

ACH

872 
WWUS53 KEAX 190526
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MOC025-117-190535-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110819T0545Z/
CALDWELL MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3895 9345 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3928 9430 3962 9351 3961 9340 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 322DEG 32KT 3945 9308 3881 9387

$$

MOC033-041-047-095-101-107-177-195-190545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110819T0545Z/
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
RAY MO-SALINE MO-
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SALINE
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON AND CARROLL
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND RAY...LAFAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL CLAY 
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

AT 1223 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM BRUNSWICK TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARRENSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CONCORDIA...WARRENSBURG...MALTA BEND...MOUNT LEONARD AND EMMA.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 66.

AT 1208 AM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A 65 MPH WIND GUST IN 
LEXINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 9345 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3928 9430 3962 9351 3961 9340 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 322DEG 32KT 3945 9308 3881 9387
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

ACH

558 
WWUS53 KEAX 190537
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MOC047-190547-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110819T0545Z/
CLAY MO-
1237 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3895 9345 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3923 9425 3921 9421 3925 9421 3952 9354
      3953 9330 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 322DEG 32KT 3936 9300 3873 9379

$$

MOC033-041-095-101-107-177-195-190545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110819T0545Z/
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
SALINE MO-
1237 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SALINE
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON AND CARROLL
COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN RAY...LAFAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1233 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEYTESVILLE TO WARRENSBURG...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL SALINE...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
  LAFAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND SOUTHERN CHARITON COUNTIES.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 66.

AT 1208 AM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A 65 MPH WIND GUST IN 
LEXINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 9345 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3923 9425 3921 9421 3925 9421 3952 9354
      3953 9330 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 322DEG 32KT 3936 9300 3873 9379
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

ACH

726 
WWUS53 KEAX 190543
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

MOC033-041-095-101-107-177-195-190552-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0323.000000T0000Z-110819T0545Z/
CARROLL MO-CHARITON MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
SALINE MO-
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON AND CARROLL COUNTIES IN
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN RAY...LAFAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
PORTIONS OF RAY...LAFAYETTE...CARROLL...JOHNSON AND SALINE COUNTIES 
UNTIL 1:30 AM. 

LAT...LON 3895 9345 3894 9350 3891 9350 3871 9373
      3923 9425 3921 9421 3925 9421 3952 9354
      3953 9330 3932 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 322DEG 32KT 3932 9297 3869 9376

$$

ACH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 8 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 8 hours 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED WITH THESE STORMS THUS
FAR WITH UPWARD OF SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CURRENT AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IN PLACE...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHOULD A WELL DEVELOPED MCS ORGANIZE...AN
ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ROUGH
TIMING WOULD BRING THIS COMPLEX ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI STATE LINE
NEAR 00Z AND ROUGHLY TO A KANSAS CITY TO CHILLICOTHE LINE BY 03Z.
LATEST PROGS INDICATE INGREDIENTS TO BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE
COMPLEX INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL
COMPLEX AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AIDING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MUCAPE VALUES. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAIRLY QUIET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
OUT WEST AS THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

MODELS IN MODEST DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE SO WILL
RELY ON MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.  THAT SAID...LARGEST DIFFERENCE
IN THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
SYNOPTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON SUNDAY.  FEEL THAT THIS
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT POPS
COULD BE REMOVED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SOME
SIGNALS APPEAR THAT LEFT OVER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO CUT UNDER THE RIDGE BY MONDAY PULLING MOISTURE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP BACK TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS AS USUAL MORE BULLISH IN THIS
REGARDS...WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF SLOWER. GEFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE.

THIS SAID...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TUE/WED AS GEFS/NAEFS SUPPORT
INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
RATHER BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  LINGERING MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WELL
AS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA. THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING
ON TIMING AND HAVE KEPT PERSISTENCE AS A DECENT COMPROMISE. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE MORNING HOURS.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 6:24 PM CDT, 5 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL EVOLVE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE STORMS MAY AT LEAST
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BEUSTERIEN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 18, 11:36 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
08/18/2011  M59 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   ASOS

            IXD ASOS MEASURED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT 59 MPH.

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 18, 11:37 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BASEHOR             39.07N 94.93W
08/18/2011  E60.00 MPH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 18, 11:46 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
08/18/2011  M68 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   ASOS

            IXD ASOS MEASURED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST AT 68 MPH.

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 18, 11:47 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW DE SOTO           38.96N 94.98W
08/18/2011  M72 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 18, 11:50 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRAYMER                 39.59N 93.80W
08/18/2011  E65 MPH          CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 18, 11:55 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE ST JOSEPH          39.81N 94.80W
08/18/2011                   BUCHANAN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            MISSOURI HIGHWAY PATROL TOWER BLOWN DOWN

&&

SF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 18, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	29 min
Aug 18, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Gentry, Nodaway	32 min
Aug 18, 7:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison, Worth	29 min
Aug 18, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway	24 min
Aug 18, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy and 3 more	46 min
Aug 18, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	51 min
Aug 18, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell	30 min
Aug 18, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth	38 min
Aug 18, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 2 more	45 min
Aug 18, 10:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	42 min
Aug 18, 10:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 1 more	46 min
Aug 18, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte	33 min
Aug 18, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton, Platte	32 min
Aug 18, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Jackson and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 11:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Clay, Platte	6 hr
Aug 18, 11:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	45 min
Aug 18, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	37 min
Aug 19, 12:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Jackson	6 hr
Aug 19, 12:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Johnson	56 min
Aug 19, 12:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and 2 more	59 min
Aug 19, 12:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson	42 min
Aug 19, 12:42 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Bates, Cass, Cooper, Henry, Johnson, Pettis	5 hr
Aug 19, 12:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Pettis	46 min
Aug 19, 1:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Bates	44 min
Aug 19, 1:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Saline	26 min
Aug 19, 1:24 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	36 min
Aug 19, 1:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	31 min
Aug 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	7 hr
Aug 19, 11:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	22 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.