Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 18, 20118 counties in Missouri; Atchison County, Doniphan County, Kansas

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2011, 10:15 PM CDT for 8 counties in Missouri; Atchison County, Doniphan County, Kansas. It was in force for 45 min. 11 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 18, 2011, 10:15 PM CDT (03:15 UTC)
Expired: Aug 18, 2011, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Platte County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 18, 10:22 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	1 N St. Joseph, MO
Aug 18, 10:22 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	1 N St. Joseph, MO
Aug 18, 10:23 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 70	Wathena, KS
Aug 18, 10:23 PM CDT	HAIL 1	St Joseph, MO
Aug 18, 10:25 PM CDT	HAIL 1	St. Joseph, MO
Aug 18, 10:31 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 70	1 E St. Joseph, MO	THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH.
Aug 18, 10:45 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	Dearborn, MO
Aug 18, 10:47 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	Cameron, MO	THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH.
Aug 18, 10:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Dearborn, MO
Aug 18, 10:54 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	7 N Plattsburg, MO
Aug 18, 11:04 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 55	Cameron, MO	50-60 MPH WINDS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 8 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 18, 6:38 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr
Aug 18, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3749 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 193 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.3
Supercell composite: 17.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

866 
WUUS53 KEAX 190315
SVREAX
KSC005-043-MOC003-021-049-061-063-075-081-165-190400-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0315.110819T0315Z-110819T0400Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1015 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ATCHISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN ANDREW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  BUCHANAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  WESTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHERN HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

AT 940 PM...FIRE AND RESCUE CREWS REPORTED A E65.00 MPH WIND GUST 2 
MILES WEST OF OREGON.


* AT 1014 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
  IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW HAMPTON TO KING CITY
  TO CLARKSDALE TO COUNTRY CLUB VILLA TO RUSHVILLE TO MUSCOTAH...AND
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...ELWOOD...ST. JOSEPH...BETHANY...ATCHISON...
  MAYSVILLE...CAMERON...GOWER...PLATTSBURG...NEW HAMPTON...
  CLARKSDALE...EFFINGHAM...LANCASTER...RUSHVILLE...STEWARTSVILLE...
  AGENCY...PATTONSBURG...OSBORN...DEARBORN AND GILMAN CITY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9557 3968 9518 3989 9493 3984 9472
      4011 9454 4040 9421 4020 9378 3959 9438
      3952 9464 3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 297DEG 22KT 4029 9418 4006 9443
          3980 9461 3985 9482 3963 9507 3960 9548
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.50IN

$$

MJ

3 follow-up statements

148 
WWUS53 KEAX 190328
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1028 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSC005-043-MOC003-021-049-061-063-075-081-165-190400-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-110819T0400Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DEKALB MO-
GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-PLATTE MO-ANDREW MO-
1028 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
ANDREW...NORTHERN PLATTE...SOUTHERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY...
DEKALB...WESTERN DAVIESS...NORTHERN CLINTON...BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN
DONIPHAN AND ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1023 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BETHANY TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MAYSVILLE TO STEWARTSVILLE TO AGENCY TO RUSHVILLE TO MUSCOTAH...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GOWER...CAMERON...MUSCOTAH...PATTONSBURG...STEWARTSVILLE...
  AGENCY...EFFINGHAM...OSBORN...DEARBORN...GILMAN CITY...SANTA
  ROSA...ARRINGTON...FAUCETT...COFFEY...WEATHERBY...FARMINGTON...BEAN
  LAKE...JAMESON...WINSTON AND CUMMINGS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 95.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29 AND 54.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 13.

AT 1022 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL 1 
MILE NORTH OF ST. JOSEPH.
AT 1022 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A 60 MPH WIND GUST 1
MILE NORTH OF ST. JOSEPH.
AT 1023 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTH
OF ST JOSEPH.
AT 1025 PM...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTH
OF ST. JOSEPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9557 3968 9518 3989 9493 3984 9472
      4011 9454 4040 9421 4020 9378 3959 9438
      3952 9464 3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 297DEG 22KT 4023 9397 3998 9426
          3977 9449 3970 9475 3953 9495 3956 9552
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.50IN

$$

MJ

974 
WWUS53 KEAX 190347
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1047 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

MOC003-190357-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-110819T0400Z/
ANDREW MO-
1047 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ANDREW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3963 9557 3968 9517 3983 9496 3982 9460
      3988 9461 4026 9424 4020 9378 3959 9438
      3952 9464 3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 297DEG 22KT 4013 9393 3992 9412
          3971 9435 3964 9461 3947 9481 3947 9521

$$

KSC005-043-MOC021-049-061-063-075-081-165-190400-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-110819T0400Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DEKALB MO-
GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-PLATTE MO-
1047 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
PLATTE...SOUTHERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY...DEKALB...WESTERN
DAVIESS...NORTHERN CLINTON...BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN AND
ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1043 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GILMAN CITY TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF PATTONSBURG TO OSBORN TO GOWER TO DEARBORN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NORTONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GOWER...CAMERON...GILMAN CITY...WINSTON AND JAMESON.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 89.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29 AND 51.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 10.

AT 1022 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL 1 
MILE NORTH OF ST. JOSEPH.
AT 1022 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A 60 MPH WIND GUST 1
MILE NORTH OF ST. JOSEPH.
AT 1023 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTH
OF ST JOSEPH.
AT 1025 PM...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTH
OF ST. JOSEPH.
AT 1031 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A 70 MPH WIND GUST 1
MILE EAST OF ST. JOSEPH.
AT 1023 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A 70 MPH WIND GUST WEST
OF ATHENA.
AT 1044 PM...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A 50 MPH WIND GUST 4
MILES NORTH OF LEAVENWORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9557 3968 9517 3983 9496 3982 9460
      3988 9461 4026 9424 4020 9378 3959 9438
      3952 9464 3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 297DEG 22KT 4013 9393 3992 9412
          3971 9435 3964 9461 3947 9481 3947 9521
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.50IN

$$

MJ

821 
WWUS53 KEAX 190402
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSC005-043-MOC021-049-061-063-075-081-165-190409-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-110819T0400Z/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DEKALB MO-
GENTRY MO-HARRISON MO-PLATTE MO-
1102 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN PLATTE...SOUTHERN
HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY...DEKALB...WESTERN DAVIESS...NORTHERN
CLINTON...BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN AND ATCHISON COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 
PLATTE...EXTREME SOUTHEAST BUCHANAN...SOUTHERN ATCHISON...AND 
CLINTON COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3963 9557 3968 9517 3983 9496 3982 9460
      3988 9461 4026 9424 4020 9378 3959 9438
      3952 9464 3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 297DEG 22KT 4009 9384 3988 9403
          3968 9427 3961 9453 3944 9473 3944 9513

$$

MJ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 3:38 PM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED WITH THESE STORMS THUS
FAR WITH UPWARD OF SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN AXIS OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CURRENT AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA
OF AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IN PLACE...EXPECT A SEVERE THREAT TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHOULD A WELL DEVELOPED MCS ORGANIZE...AN
ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. ROUGH
TIMING WOULD BRING THIS COMPLEX ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI STATE LINE
NEAR 00Z AND ROUGHLY TO A KANSAS CITY TO CHILLICOTHE LINE BY 03Z.
LATEST PROGS INDICATE INGREDIENTS TO BE IN PLACE TO MAINTAIN THE
COMPLEX INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL
COMPLEX AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AIDING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MUCAPE VALUES. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD PROGRESS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAIRLY QUIET. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
OUT WEST AS THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

MODELS IN MODEST DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE SO WILL
RELY ON MORE OF AN ENSEMBLE BLEND.  THAT SAID...LARGEST DIFFERENCE
IN THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
SYNOPTIC TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NE CONUS ON SUNDAY.  FEEL THAT THIS
TROUGH SHOULD PUSH HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT POPS
COULD BE REMOVED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...SOME
SIGNALS APPEAR THAT LEFT OVER ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO CUT UNDER THE RIDGE BY MONDAY PULLING MOISTURE AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIP BACK TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS AS USUAL MORE BULLISH IN THIS
REGARDS...WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF SLOWER. GEFS ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE.

THIS SAID...WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR TUE/WED AS GEFS/NAEFS SUPPORT
INCREASED MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
RATHER BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.  LINGERING MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS WELL
AS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA. THIS
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING
ON TIMING AND HAVE KEPT PERSISTENCE AS A DECENT COMPROMISE. EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE MORNING HOURS.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 6:24 PM CDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191145-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL EVOLVE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE STORMS MAY AT LEAST
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BEUSTERIEN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 18, 9:18 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
918 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WINSTON                 39.87N 94.14W
08/18/2011                   DAVIESS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ *** GAS STATION AWNING BLOWN DOWN. INJURIES IN
            A CAR UNDERNEATH THE AWNING.

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Aug 18, 9:21 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             TARKIO                  40.44N 95.38W
08/18/2011  M1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

Local storm report, Aug 18, 9:26 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
926 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINSTON                 39.87N 94.14W
08/18/2011                   DAVIESS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ *** GAS STATION AWNING BLOWN DOWN. INJURIES IN
            A CAR UNDERNEATH THE AWNING.

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Aug 18, 9:29 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
929 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW PATTONSBURG       39.97N 94.16W
08/18/2011                   DAVIESS            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2ND STORY WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Aug 18, 9:44 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E FAIRFAX             40.34N 95.33W
08/18/2011                   ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

ABAILEY

Local storm report, Aug 18, 9:47 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
947 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W OREGON              39.98N 95.18W
08/18/2011  E65.00 MPH       HOLT               MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ABAILEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 18, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Nodaway	29 min
Aug 18, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Gentry, Nodaway	32 min
Aug 18, 7:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Harrison, Worth	29 min
Aug 18, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison, Nodaway	24 min
Aug 18, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy and 3 more	46 min
Aug 18, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt, Nodaway	51 min
Aug 18, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Caldwell	30 min
Aug 18, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth	38 min
Aug 18, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 10:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	42 min
Aug 18, 10:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 1 more	46 min
Aug 18, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte	33 min
Aug 18, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton, Platte	32 min
Aug 18, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton, Daviess, Jackson and 3 more	43 min
Aug 18, 11:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Clay, Platte	6 hr
Aug 18, 11:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Clay, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	45 min
Aug 18, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette	37 min
Aug 18, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Jackson, Johnson and 4 more	48 min
Aug 19, 12:09 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Jackson	6 hr
Aug 19, 12:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass, Henry, Johnson	56 min
Aug 19, 12:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis and 2 more	59 min
Aug 19, 12:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson	42 min
Aug 19, 12:42 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Bates, Cass, Cooper, Henry, Johnson, Pettis	5 hr
Aug 19, 12:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Pettis	46 min
Aug 19, 1:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Bates	44 min
Aug 19, 1:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Johnson, Pettis, Saline	26 min
Aug 19, 1:24 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	36 min
Aug 19, 1:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	31 min
Aug 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	7 hr
Aug 19, 11:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper	22 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.