Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK MCV ARE NOTED SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI...ALONG
AND NORTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
BACK INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHAT IS LEFT OF A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STARTED LIFE EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS FEATURE HAS WORKED TO TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS UNDER THE
HEAT ADVISORY TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
A RESULT. HOWEVER...HAVE NO INTENTION OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY TODAY
AS THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITION PREVAILING IN THE SAME REGION AGAIN SUNDAY. AND...WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON ACROSS THE REGION...FEEL
IT IS STILL WISE TO HIGHLIGHT TO POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY UNTIL WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT HEAT INDICES WONT TOP OUT
AROUND 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE MITIGATING FACTORS THAT COULD STAVE OFF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE MULTIPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WALLOWING AROUND THE PLAINS...AND MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WOULD ROLL EAST ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY
MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT TONIGHTS ACTIVITY MIGHT BE FOCUSED A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFIC TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
KANSAS AND MISSOURI...WHICH WILL FURTHER TAKE THE EDGE OFF
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WESTERLIES WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH TO
AROUND THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER FOCUSING A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROVIDES A
DECENT SIGNAL THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL START IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON IF IT DEVELOPS INTO A MCV.

OTHERWISE...PUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN A LITTLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM MODELS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUND...AND THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT...MIGHT TAKE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS AND
SHIFT IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST ONE NIGHT.

CUTTER

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE BEGINS BUILD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS PERIODIC CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT YIELDING
STRONGER SHEAR A FEW OF THESE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL
WAVE IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT SO THE GENERAL TREND IN POPS IS TO
INCREASE THEM IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE HIGHER POPS EAST DURING
THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS LEFTOVER DURING THE DAY SOME
PLACES MAY SEE HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THOUGH...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

TSRA COMPLEXES OVER NEBR/IOWA/NRN MISSOURI SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LARGELY DECAYING
ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING VARIABLE SFC WINDS. SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY TOWARDS SUNRISE...THOUGH HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED ANY MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

LARGER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS MANY
MODELS ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP TSTMS AROUND TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY INCLUDE A
CB CLOUD GROUP. BETTER SIGNALS EXIST FOR A WELL ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING TOWARDS THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR LATE IN
THE PERIOD...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM PRECLUDES MORE THAN A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
542 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING
THE LATE AFTERONON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ACCELERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND ENTER FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
9 PM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AN OREGON
TO BETHANY TO PRINCETON LINE. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS LARGE HAIL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE VERY EARLY
EVENING HOURS FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM
105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
WHEN DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

OTHERWISE...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST PREFERRED TIME THAT
LOCATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LOCALLY
EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MOZ003>006-015-070430-
GENTRY MO-GRUNDY MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-WORTH MO-
1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WORTH...MERCER...NORTHERN
HARRISON...NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY AND NORTHEASTERN GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 PM CDT...

AT 1020 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF GRANT CITY...OR 19 MILES NORTH
OF STANBERRY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  EAGLEVILLE...RIDGEWAY...CAINSVILLE...PRINCETON...MERCER...DENVER...
  ALLENDALE...HATFIELD...MARTINSVILLE...BLYTHEDALE...MOUNT MORIAH...
  MODENA AND MILL GROVE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 114.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4057 9338 4022 9337 4037 9458 4058 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 278DEG 50KT 4049 9442

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1032 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEARMONT               40.51N 95.03W
08/06/2011                   NODAWAY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN. FIRE DEPT ESTIMATED 60 MPH
            WINDS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1035 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E MARYVILLE           40.34N 94.80W
08/06/2011                   NODAWAY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINE DOWNED AT HWY 136 AND HWY F

&&

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PICKERING           40.45N 94.86W
08/06/2011                   NODAWAY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MOZ007-008-016-017-070530-
ADAIR MO-PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-SULLIVAN MO-
1131 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ADAIR...NORTHEASTERN
SULLIVAN...SCHUYLER AND PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MERCER...OR 15 MILES WEST
OF UNIONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...GREEN CITY...NOVINGER...QUEEN CITY...
  GREENTOP...DOWNING...POLLOCK...LEMONS...GREEN CASTLE...LIVONIA...
  WORTHINGTON AND GLENWOOD.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4060 9234 4018 9234 4023 9318 4058 9318
      4060 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 273DEG 52KT 4043 9323

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

MOZ001-002-070730-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY MO-
144 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 142 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMBURG...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TARKIO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...ROCKPORT...FAIRFAX...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...PHELPS CITY...
  WESTBORO...ELMO AND QUITMAN.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 123.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 732 IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 3 AM CDT. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4058 9505 4031 9505 4026 9517 4027 9556
      4029 9556 4031 9566 4034 9563 4041 9566
      4045 9565 4047 9570 4051 9570 4052 9566
      4056 9567 4055 9569 4052 9570 4052 9575
      4058 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 318DEG 33KT 4051 9554

SF