Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Kansas City, MO

869 
WWUS53 KEAX 072001
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSC209-072009-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-110807T2015Z/
WYANDOTTE KS-
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3884 9430 3901 9457 3914 9457 3928 9444
      3919 9381 3884 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 287DEG 37KT 3913 9416 3902 9422
          3894 9433

$$

MOC047-095-101-107-177-072015-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-110807T2015Z/
CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
RAY...WESTERN LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...JACKSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 315 PM 
CDT...
 
AT 258 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BUCKNER TO GRAIN VALLEY TO LEE'S SUMMIT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

AT 230 PM...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE WIND 
DAMAGE IN PLATTE WOODS.

AT 238 PM...A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED QUARTER SIZE
HAIL IN RIVERSIDE.

AT 245 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A 65 MPH WIND GUST 2 
MILES EAST OF KANSAS CITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRAIN VALLEY...OAK GROVE...LAKE LOTAWANA...ODESSA...LEXINGTON...
  LEVASY...WELLINGTON...LONE JACK...FLEMING...NAPOLEON...TARSNEY
  LAKES...CAMDEN...BATES CITY...LAKE LAFAYETTE AND PITTSVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 40.
  I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 18.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 51 TO 68.
  I-470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9430 3901 9457 3914 9457 3928 9444
      3919 9381 3884 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 287DEG 37KT 3913 9416 3902 9422
          3894 9433
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

CUTTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SMALL MCV OVER N CENTRAL KS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. HOWEVER...
WNW STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ESE FROM THIS
CONVECTION THRU WEST CENTRAL MO AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO TURN
ESE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. NORMAL DIURNAL TREND WITH MORNING
CONVECTION IS TO DISSIPATE BUT HAVING AN MCV TIED TO IT AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY HAS TURNED
THE CORNER AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MODE
FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR BOW SEGMENTS AND ACCELERATION OF SYSTEM. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING
ALOFT HAVE SUPPORTED PERSISTENT OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS PROPAGATING THROUGH NRN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT PROGRESSED INTO SWD INTO CNTRL MISSOURI HAS SUPPORTED
ELEVATED ACCAS/TS EARLY THIS MORNING. JET ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME STRONGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND REDUCED CAPPING. THIS
WILL START A PERIOD OF BETTER AND MORE FREQUENT RAINFALL CHANCES
(LARGELY IN THE NOCTURNAL SENSE)...AND TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS/AC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER DIURNAL HEATING EARLY TODAY...THOUGH UPSTREAM
COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR AS EXTENSIVE...AND BELIEVE HEAT ADVISORY
AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THE MOST PART...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE AWAITING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODELS ALL SIGNAL A WELL
ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING TO THE WEST...THERE
REMAINS DISCREPANCIES REGARDING MORE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AS WELL AS
A MORE SWWD PLACEMENT OFFERED BY A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FORECAST MCS...WITH HAIL A
SECONDARY THREAT.

PRECIPITATION (AND CERTAINLY CLOUD COVER) MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH A SECONDARY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE CUT HIGHS MONDAY BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE...THOUGH HAVE A STRONG FEELING THAT RESIDUAL COLD POOL
AND CLOUD COVER EFFECTS MAY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE MEAN ERN CONUS
TROUGH...IDENTIFYING AND TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IS NEARLY
FRUITLESS AT THIS POINT. FROM A CONCEPTUAL STANDPOINT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROPAGATING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...EXPECTING THAT A COUPLE DAYS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHILE OTHER DAYS SEE
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE
REFRESHING FOR MID AUGUST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRING OF
EXCESSIVELY HOT DAYS IN THE PAST MONTH.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACKING EAST INTO NORTHEAST KS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH ALL 3
TERMINALS. STRONGEST PORTION OF SYSTEM WITH HEAVIEST RAINS AND
STRONGEST WINDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PASS THROUGH KMCI/KMKC.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECT WHEN CORE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH SHOULD
SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. IF THE ATTENDANT GUST FRONT HOLDS
TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WILL AMEND FORECAST. CONCERN IS THAT
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH AHEAD OF IT MAY INTERFERE
WITH HIGHER WINDS REACHING GROUND. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS
CONVECTION WELL. SO CANT BANK ON LATER MODEL FORECASTS AS AIRMASS
WILL BE CONTAMINATED.

STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THAT FORM
FURTHER UPSTREAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST...JUST
DONT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON TIMING. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL STRIP AWAY
THE PREVIOUS TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK THERE IS LOW RISK FOR
STORMS CONTINUING PAST MID MONDAY MORNING SO WILL END RAIN CHANCES
THEN.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM ST JOSEPH SOUTHWARD TO KANSAS CITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO
110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND POSSIBLY A
SECOND COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST PREFERRED
TIME THAT LOCATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LOCALLY EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW PARKVILLE         39.22N 94.74W
08/07/2011                   PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR 45 HIGHWAY AND INTERSTATE 435 AT LEAST ONE LARGE
            TREE BLOWN DOWN AS WELL AS NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND GST     KCI AIRPORT             39.30N 94.72W
08/07/2011  M62 MPH          PLATTE             MO   ASOS

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
235 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE KANSAS CITY        39.14N 94.53W
08/07/2011  E60 MPH          JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50 TO 60 MPH WINDS

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND GST     N CLAYCOMO              39.20N 94.48W
08/07/2011  E60 MPH          CLAY               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
243 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST INDEPENDENCE            39.09N 94.35W
08/07/2011  E60 MPH          JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
247 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW GLADSTONE          39.16N 94.62W
08/07/2011  M75 MPH          PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAILEY