Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Kansas City, MO

505 
WWUS53 KEAX 071938
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSC103-071947-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0298.000000T0000Z-110807T2000Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LEAVENWORTH
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE  
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3920 9484 3920 9478 3921 9482 3922 9483
      3932 9473 3920 9431 3896 9448 3888 9461
      3918 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 312DEG 29KT 3918 9457 3907 9465

$$

KSC091-209-MOC047-095-165-072000-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0298.000000T0000Z-110807T2000Z/
JOHNSON KS-WYANDOTTE KS-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-PLATTE MO-
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...


AT 235 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NORTHMOOR TO KANSAS CITY KANSAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. 

AT 225 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED STRAIGHT LINE WIND 
DAMAGE 4 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PARKVILLE.

AT 228 PM...OFFICIAL WEATHER INSTRUMENTATION MEASURED A 62 MPH WIND
GUST IN KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

AT 233 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A 60 MPH WIND GUST 2
MILES NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MISSION...NORTH KANSAS CITY...CLAYCOMO...WESTWOOD...KANSAS CITY...
  FAIRWAY...OVERLAND PARK...MISSION HILLS...PRAIRIE VILLAGE...
  LEAWOOD...SUGAR CREEK...COURTNEY...INDEPENDENCE...RAYTOWN...KANSAS
  CITY DOWNTOWN...PLEASANT VALLEY...AVONDALE...MISSION WOODS...
  WESTWOOD HILLS AND GLENAIRE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.
  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 413 AND 423.
  I-35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 15.
  I-35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 235.
  I-635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 14 TO 26...48 TO 77.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 9484 3920 9478 3921 9482 3922 9483
      3932 9473 3920 9431 3896 9448 3888 9461
      3918 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 312DEG 29KT 3918 9457 3907 9465
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

CUTTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SMALL MCV OVER N CENTRAL KS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. HOWEVER...
WNW STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ESE FROM THIS
CONVECTION THRU WEST CENTRAL MO AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO TURN
ESE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. NORMAL DIURNAL TREND WITH MORNING
CONVECTION IS TO DISSIPATE BUT HAVING AN MCV TIED TO IT AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY HAS TURNED
THE CORNER AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MODE
FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR BOW SEGMENTS AND ACCELERATION OF SYSTEM. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING
ALOFT HAVE SUPPORTED PERSISTENT OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS PROPAGATING THROUGH NRN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT PROGRESSED INTO SWD INTO CNTRL MISSOURI HAS SUPPORTED
ELEVATED ACCAS/TS EARLY THIS MORNING. JET ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME STRONGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND REDUCED CAPPING. THIS
WILL START A PERIOD OF BETTER AND MORE FREQUENT RAINFALL CHANCES
(LARGELY IN THE NOCTURNAL SENSE)...AND TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS/AC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER DIURNAL HEATING EARLY TODAY...THOUGH UPSTREAM
COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR AS EXTENSIVE...AND BELIEVE HEAT ADVISORY
AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THE MOST PART...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE AWAITING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODELS ALL SIGNAL A WELL
ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING TO THE WEST...THERE
REMAINS DISCREPANCIES REGARDING MORE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AS WELL AS
A MORE SWWD PLACEMENT OFFERED BY A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FORECAST MCS...WITH HAIL A
SECONDARY THREAT.

PRECIPITATION (AND CERTAINLY CLOUD COVER) MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH A SECONDARY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE CUT HIGHS MONDAY BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE...THOUGH HAVE A STRONG FEELING THAT RESIDUAL COLD POOL
AND CLOUD COVER EFFECTS MAY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE MEAN ERN CONUS
TROUGH...IDENTIFYING AND TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IS NEARLY
FRUITLESS AT THIS POINT. FROM A CONCEPTUAL STANDPOINT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROPAGATING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...EXPECTING THAT A COUPLE DAYS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHILE OTHER DAYS SEE
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE
REFRESHING FOR MID AUGUST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRING OF
EXCESSIVELY HOT DAYS IN THE PAST MONTH.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACKING EAST INTO NORTHEAST KS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH ALL 3
TERMINALS. STRONGEST PORTION OF SYSTEM WITH HEAVIEST RAINS AND
STRONGEST WINDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PASS THROUGH KMCI/KMKC.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECT WHEN CORE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH SHOULD
SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. IF THE ATTENDANT GUST FRONT HOLDS
TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WILL AMEND FORECAST. CONCERN IS THAT
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH AHEAD OF IT MAY INTERFERE
WITH HIGHER WINDS REACHING GROUND. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS
CONVECTION WELL. SO CANT BANK ON LATER MODEL FORECASTS AS AIRMASS
WILL BE CONTAMINATED.

STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THAT FORM
FURTHER UPSTREAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST...JUST
DONT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON TIMING. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL STRIP AWAY
THE PREVIOUS TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK THERE IS LOW RISK FOR
STORMS CONTINUING PAST MID MONDAY MORNING SO WILL END RAIN CHANCES
THEN.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM ST JOSEPH SOUTHWARD TO KANSAS CITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO
110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND POSSIBLY A
SECOND COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST PREFERRED
TIME THAT LOCATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LOCALLY EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSZ025-103-104-MOZ028-071915-
ATCHISON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-WYANDOTTE KS-
147 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PLATTE...SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON...
NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE AND NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RUSHVILLE TO EASTON TO WINCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS PRODUCED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH IN LANCASTER KANSAS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WESTON...LEAVENWORTH...BASEHOR...PLATTE CITY...LANSING...WEATHERBY
  LAKE...DEARBORN...CAMDEN POINT...TRACY...EDGERTON...FERRELVIEW...
  JARBALO...FORT LEAVENWORTH...BEVERLY...STILLINGS...FAIRMOUNT...EAST
  LEAVENWORTH...FARLEY...RIDGELY AND PIPER.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 14 TO 38.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 30.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3954 9518 3954 9511 3953 9510 3953 9460
      3932 9460 3910 9484 3915 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 280DEG 32KT 3952 9493 3938 9507
          3929 9516

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
202 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND GST     EASTON                  39.72N 94.64W
08/07/2011  E50.00 MPH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 TO 50 MPH WINDS

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HAIL             LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
08/07/2011  E0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             2 N LEAVENWORTH         39.35N 94.92W
08/07/2011  E1.00 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC IN FORT LEAVENWORTH

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
224 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE LANSING           39.15N 94.84W
08/07/2011  E50 MPH          WYANDOTTE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E LEAVENWORTH           39.32N 94.92W
08/07/2011                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN ON EAST SIDE OF THE CITY.

&&

ACH