Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Kansas City, MO

862 
WWUS53 KEAX 070231
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
931 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MOC005-147-070300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-110807T0300Z/
NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
931 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATCHISON AND
NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF TARKIO...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...FAIRFAX...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...WESTBORO...ELMO...QUITMAN
  AND CLEARMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9497 4027 9511 4036 9556 4059 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 280DEG 35KT 4048 9544
WIND...HAIL 70MPH <.75IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

023 
WWUS53 KEAX 070247
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
947 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MOC005-147-070300-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-110807T0300Z/
NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
947 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON
JUNCTION...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF TARKIO...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BURLINGTON JUNCTION...QUITMAN AND CLEARMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4034 9545 4058 9536 4058 9497 4027 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 277DEG 58KT 4050 9512
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

623 
WWUS53 KEAX 070256
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
956 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MOC005-147-070306-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-110807T0300Z/
NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
956 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ATCHISON AND
NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA INTO CENTRAL NODAWAY COUNTY.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE 
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4034 9545 4058 9536 4058 9497 4027 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 277DEG 58KT 4047 9493

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK MCV ARE NOTED SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI...ALONG
AND NORTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
BACK INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHAT IS LEFT OF A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STARTED LIFE EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS FEATURE HAS WORKED TO TAKE THE
EDGE OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS UNDER THE
HEAT ADVISORY TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
A RESULT. HOWEVER...HAVE NO INTENTION OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY TODAY
AS THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITION PREVAILING IN THE SAME REGION AGAIN SUNDAY. AND...WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES GOING ON ACROSS THE REGION...FEEL
IT IS STILL WISE TO HIGHLIGHT TO POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY UNTIL WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT HEAT INDICES WONT TOP OUT
AROUND 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE MITIGATING FACTORS THAT COULD STAVE OFF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE MULTIPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WALLOWING AROUND THE PLAINS...AND MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KANSAS...WHICH WOULD ROLL EAST ACROSS MISSOURI SUNDAY
MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT TONIGHTS ACTIVITY MIGHT BE FOCUSED A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFIC TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
KANSAS AND MISSOURI...WHICH WILL FURTHER TAKE THE EDGE OFF
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WESTERLIES WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH TO
AROUND THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER FOCUSING A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROVIDES A
DECENT SIGNAL THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL START IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON IF IT DEVELOPS INTO A MCV.

OTHERWISE...PUSHED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN A LITTLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM MODELS THAT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUND...AND THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT...MIGHT TAKE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS AND
SHIFT IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST ONE NIGHT.

CUTTER

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE BEGINS BUILD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS PERIODIC CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT YIELDING
STRONGER SHEAR A FEW OF THESE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL
WAVE IS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT SO THE GENERAL TREND IN POPS IS TO
INCREASE THEM IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE HIGHER POPS EAST DURING
THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS LEFTOVER DURING THE DAY SOME
PLACES MAY SEE HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY SPEAKING THOUGH...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH SEVERAL SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST COULD
CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND TURN SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KC TERMINALS THOUGH IT COULD CLIP STJ.
CHANCES OF THIS MAKING IT INTO THE KC AREA LOOKS ABOUT 20-30
PERCENT...SO WILL HINT AT THIS SLIGHT POSSIBILITY WITH A CB GROUP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
PERSISTING MUCH PAST 06Z AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS OVER MISSOURI. THINGS MAY PLAY OUT IN A SIMILAR FASHION ON
SUNDAY WITH YET ANOTHER MCS TRACKING INTO THE AREA...THIS TIME MAKING
IT DEEPER INTO MISSOURI. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE AFTER 00Z SO WILL
NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
542 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING
THE LATE AFTERONON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ACCELERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND ENTER FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
9 PM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AN OREGON
TO BETHANY TO PRINCETON LINE. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS LARGE HAIL IN A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE VERY EARLY
EVENING HOURS FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. LATE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM
105 TO 110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
WHEN DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

OTHERWISE...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST PREFERRED TIME THAT
LOCATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD
LOCALLY
EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

MJ