Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Kansas City, MO

185 
WWUS53 KEAX 072055
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

MOC101-107-159-195-072115-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110807T2115Z/
JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-PETTIS MO-SALINE MO-
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SALINE AND NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND EASTERN
LAFAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 354 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO REPORT A LINE 
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 
MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF BLACKBURN TO SWEET SPRINGS TO 6 MILES 
NORTH OF KNOB NOSTER...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

AT 340 PM...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A 95 MPH WIND GUST IN 
HIGGINSVILLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARSHALL...HOUSTONIA...LA MONTE...HUGHESVILLE AND NELSON.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 48 AND 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9384 3915 9370 3916 9297 3899 9303
      3897 9305 3888 9306 3871 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 278DEG 43KT 3908 9337 3893 9343
          3885 9353
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

CUTTER

821 
WWUS53 KEAX 072108
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
408 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

MOC101-107-072117-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110807T2115Z/
JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
408 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAFAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE  
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3899 9303 3897 9305 3888 9306 3871 9321
      3877 9350 3915 9349 3916 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 280DEG 46KT 3904 9316 3890 9320
          3881 9332

$$

MOC159-195-072115-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110807T2115Z/
PETTIS MO-SALINE MO-
408 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SALINE AND NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 403 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF MARSHALL TO 5 MILES EAST OF HOUSTONIA TO LA 
MONTE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST DOWN 
INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS TIME.

AT 340 PM...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A 95 MPH WIND GUST IN 
HIGGINSVILLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NELSON.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 63 AND 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 9303 3897 9305 3888 9306 3871 9321
      3877 9350 3915 9349 3916 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 280DEG 46KT 3904 9316 3890 9320
          3881 9332
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

CUTTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SMALL MCV OVER N CENTRAL KS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. HOWEVER...
WNW STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ESE FROM THIS
CONVECTION THRU WEST CENTRAL MO AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO TURN
ESE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. NORMAL DIURNAL TREND WITH MORNING
CONVECTION IS TO DISSIPATE BUT HAVING AN MCV TIED TO IT AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY HAS TURNED
THE CORNER AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MODE
FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR BOW SEGMENTS AND ACCELERATION OF SYSTEM. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES ON THE NRN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING
ALOFT HAVE SUPPORTED PERSISTENT OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS PROPAGATING THROUGH NRN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT PROGRESSED INTO SWD INTO CNTRL MISSOURI HAS SUPPORTED
ELEVATED ACCAS/TS EARLY THIS MORNING. JET ENERGY WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME STRONGER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND REDUCED CAPPING. THIS
WILL START A PERIOD OF BETTER AND MORE FREQUENT RAINFALL CHANCES
(LARGELY IN THE NOCTURNAL SENSE)...AND TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS/AC CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER DIURNAL HEATING EARLY TODAY...THOUGH UPSTREAM
COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR AS EXTENSIVE...AND BELIEVE HEAT ADVISORY
AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. FOR THE MOST PART...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE AWAITING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODELS ALL SIGNAL A WELL
ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING TO THE WEST...THERE
REMAINS DISCREPANCIES REGARDING MORE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS PROGRESSIVE FEATURE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AS WELL AS
A MORE SWWD PLACEMENT OFFERED BY A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FORECAST MCS...WITH HAIL A
SECONDARY THREAT.

PRECIPITATION (AND CERTAINLY CLOUD COVER) MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH A SECONDARY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE CUT HIGHS MONDAY BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE...THOUGH HAVE A STRONG FEELING THAT RESIDUAL COLD POOL
AND CLOUD COVER EFFECTS MAY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL CATEGORIES BELOW THE
CURRENT FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE MEAN ERN CONUS
TROUGH...IDENTIFYING AND TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IS NEARLY
FRUITLESS AT THIS POINT. FROM A CONCEPTUAL STANDPOINT...ANY
SHORTWAVE WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROPAGATING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE SPREAD CHANCE POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...EXPECTING THAT A COUPLE DAYS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHILE OTHER DAYS SEE
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE
REFRESHING FOR MID AUGUST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRING OF
EXCESSIVELY HOT DAYS IN THE PAST MONTH.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TRACKING EAST INTO NORTHEAST KS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH ALL 3
TERMINALS. STRONGEST PORTION OF SYSTEM WITH HEAVIEST RAINS AND
STRONGEST WINDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PASS THROUGH KMCI/KMKC.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECT WHEN CORE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH SHOULD
SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. IF THE ATTENDANT GUST FRONT HOLDS
TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WILL AMEND FORECAST. CONCERN IS THAT
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH AHEAD OF IT MAY INTERFERE
WITH HIGHER WINDS REACHING GROUND. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS
CONVECTION WELL. SO CANT BANK ON LATER MODEL FORECASTS AS AIRMASS
WILL BE CONTAMINATED.

STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THAT FORM
FURTHER UPSTREAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST...JUST
DONT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON TIMING. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL STRIP AWAY
THE PREVIOUS TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK THERE IS LOW RISK FOR
STORMS CONTINUING PAST MID MONDAY MORNING SO WILL END RAIN CHANCES
THEN.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ028>031-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM ST JOSEPH SOUTHWARD TO KANSAS CITY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO
110 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND POSSIBLY A
SECOND COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES OCCASIONALLY IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST PREFERRED
TIME THAT LOCATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
COULD LOCALLY EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E KANSAS CITY         39.12N 94.51W
08/07/2011  E65.00 MPH       JACKSON            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             RIVERSIDE               39.17N 94.63W
08/07/2011  M1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO 60 MPH WIND WITH 6 INCH DIA TREE LIMB DOWN

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            39.09N 94.35W
08/07/2011  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N BATES CITY          39.04N 94.07W
08/07/2011  E60 MPH          LAFAYETTE          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            60+ MPH WINDS. 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN. SMALL
            HAIL.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               39.00N 94.13W
08/07/2011                   JACKSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN. DIME SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               39.00N 94.13W
08/07/2011                   JACKSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN. DIME SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

ACH