Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Kansas City, MO

544 
WWUS53 KEAX 270724
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
224 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSC091-209-MOC047-095-165-270745-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-110627T0745Z/
JOHNSON KS-WYANDOTTE KS-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-PLATTE MO-
224 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...WEST CENTRAL JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

AT 221 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FERRELVIEW TO
KANSAS CITY KANSAS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WESTWOOD...KANSAS CITY KANSAS...GLADSTONE...KANSAS CITY...NORTH
  KANSAS CITY...CLAYCOMO...MISSION WOODS...NORTHMOOR...WESTWOOD
  HILLS...OAKVIEW...KANSAS CITY DOWNTOWN...AVONDALE...PLEASANT
  VALLEY...GLENAIRE...OAKWOOD PARK...OAKWOOD...OAKS...RANDOLPH AND
  BIRMINGHAM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8.
  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 423.
  I-35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 19.
  I-35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 229 AND 235.
  I-635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 5 TO 22...37 TO 62.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9487 3920 9484 3920 9478 3921 9481
      3921 9482 3926 9470 3930 9468 3938 9441
      3906 9447 3897 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 248DEG 37KT 3931 9454 3910 9465
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

MJ

034 
WWUS53 KEAX 270740
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
240 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSC091-209-MOC047-095-165-270750-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-110627T0745Z/
JOHNSON KS-WYANDOTTE KS-CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-PLATTE MO-
240 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND
SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...WEST CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 245 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3919 9487 3920 9484 3920 9478 3921 9481
      3921 9482 3926 9470 3930 9468 3938 9441
      3906 9447 3897 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 248DEG 37KT 3937 9435 3916 9447

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF COLUMBIA TO TOPEKA MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION
SOUTH OF DES MOINES TO ABOUT COLUMBUS NEBRASKA STAYING NORTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE STRONG CAP...TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 DEG C.

MEANWHILE MCS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS SURFACE BASED AND SHOWS
SIGNS OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO AS SHEAR VALUES CURRENT AND
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
J/KG.

AREA SPECIAL SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE STRONG CAP WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST AREA OF STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS NOCTURNAL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND THE NEBRASKA MCS
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD EXPECT COLD POOL TO HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT
CHANCE OF OVERCOMING THE CINH AND USHER IN THE MCS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH 30+ KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 4000 J/KG THE POTENTIAL
DERECHO PATH WOULD BE APPROXIMATELY OMAHA TO BETHANY.

ALTHOUGH DERECHO PROPAGATION IS BY DEFINITION VERY FAST...THE RAIN
RATES WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH AND GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND WE COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
TONIGHT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE HAVE AND SO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW AND MORE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ADOLPHSON

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)...

ONCE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING...DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING...CAUSING THE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST. WITH
THIS N/NELY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DRY. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH HAVING MOVED EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MID
WEEK...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE...WILL
LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH COULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE 100F-108F RANGE.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ANOTHER TOUGH TAF FORECAST CONCERNING
CONVECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KSTJ WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
KSTJ...CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARM MID LEVEL CAP.
A SQUALL LINE WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LINE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 02Z-03Z.
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTH THE LINE WILL BUILD GIVEN THE CAP
STRENGTH. AT THE TIME OF THE TAF ISSUANCE...THE O0Z TAF DID NOT HAVE
THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM KTOP. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE LOWER THAN
INDICATED ON THE CURRENT TAFS...WILL LIKELY AMEND TAFS IN THE VERY
NEAR FUTURE TO INDICATE THE DIMINISHING THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS STILL RATHER LOW.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO...MAY SEE TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT.
MODELS ARE STILL HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY AND WILL PLAY PATTERN RECOGNITION.

AFTER 12Z...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE METRO AND KSTJ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     024-025.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE IOWA BORDER. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THIS WARM AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO
MOBERLY...WITH BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RIVER
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO MACON.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S BY
LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF AN OLATHE TO CLINTON LINE.

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUMPHREYS               40.13N 93.32W
06/26/2011                   SULLIVAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW NEW CAMBRIA        39.80N 92.78W
06/27/2011                   MACON              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CAR PORT DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
114 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     HAIL             WESTBORO                40.54N 95.32W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE HAIL.

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
152 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     HAIL             2 ENE ST JOSEPH         39.77N 94.82W
06/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADOLPHSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ037-043-053-270745-
BATES MO-CASS MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-LINN KS-MIAMI
KS-WYANDOTTE KS-
155 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON...LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE AND SOUTHERN LEAVENWORTH
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...WESTERN
CASS AND WESTERN BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

AT 153 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
EUDORA TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WELLSVILLE TO FONTANA TO 7 MILES WEST
OF FULTON...AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  EDGERTON...MOUND CITY...PAOLA...LA CYGNE...GARDNER...DE SOTO...
  PLEASANTON...SPRING HILL...LOUISBURG...OLATHE...BONNER SPRINGS...
  SHAWNEE...EDWARDSVILLE...LENEXA...LAKE QUIVIRA...OVERLAND PARK...
  MERRIAM...MISSION...PRAIRIE VILLAGE AND LEAWOOD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 423.
  I-35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 235.
  I-635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 0 TO 14...70 TO 83.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3841 9495 3860 9507 3898 9506 3896 9507
      3898 9516 3896 9519 3903 9519 3918 9467
      3861 9433 3805 9434 3806 9461 3803 9462
      3803 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 247DEG 34KT 3900 9515 3868 9498
          3844 9483 3799 9482

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PATTONSBURG             40.05N 94.14W
06/27/2011                   DAVIESS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR BLOWN OFF THE ROAD IN OLD PATTONSBURG.

1204 AM     TSTM WND GST     MEADVILLE               39.79N 93.30W
06/27/2011  E60.00 MPH       LINN               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

1205 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SW TRENTON            40.01N 93.70W
06/27/2011  E80.00 MPH       GRUNDY             MO   PUBLIC

            OUTBUILDING DESTROYED. POWER LINES SNAPPED.

1207 AM     HAIL             TROY                    39.79N 95.09W
06/27/2011  E1.75 INCH       DONIPHAN           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARCELINE               39.72N 92.95W
06/27/2011                   LINN               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND ONE STRUCTURE DAMAGED.

1211 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S JAMESON             39.98N 93.99W
06/27/2011                   DAVIESS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 13 BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREE.

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S NEW BOSTON          39.94N 92.88W
06/27/2011                   LINN               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH VOLTAGE POWER LINES DOWN.

0142 AM     HAIL             2 ENE ST JOSEPH         39.77N 94.82W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADOLPHSON