Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Kansas City, MO

448 
WWUS53 KEAX 270130
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
830 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

MOC075-147-227-270139-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-110627T0200Z/
GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-WORTH MO-
830 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN WORTH...NORTHERN
NODAWAY AND NORTHWESTERN GENTRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AS A 
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND A 
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4035 9444 4028 9501 4044 9505 4058 9463
      4057 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 251DEG 18KT 4041 9480

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF COLUMBIA TO TOPEKA MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION
SOUTH OF DES MOINES TO ABOUT COLUMBUS NEBRASKA STAYING NORTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE STRONG CAP...TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 DEG C.

MEANWHILE MCS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS SURFACE BASED AND SHOWS
SIGNS OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO AS SHEAR VALUES CURRENT AND
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
J/KG.

AREA SPECIAL SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE STRONG CAP WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST AREA OF STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS NOCTURNAL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND THE NEBRASKA MCS
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD EXPECT COLD POOL TO HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT
CHANCE OF OVERCOMING THE CINH AND USHER IN THE MCS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH 30+ KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 4000 J/KG THE POTENTIAL
DERECHO PATH WOULD BE APPROXIMATELY OMAHA TO BETHANY.

ALTHOUGH DERECHO PROPAGATION IS BY DEFINITION VERY FAST...THE RAIN
RATES WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH AND GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND WE COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
TONIGHT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE HAVE AND SO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW AND MORE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ADOLPHSON

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)...

ONCE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING...DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING...CAUSING THE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST. WITH
THIS N/NELY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DRY. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH HAVING MOVED EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MID
WEEK...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE...WILL
LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH COULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE 100F-108F RANGE.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ANOTHER TOUGH TAF FORECAST CONCERNING
CONVECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KSTJ WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
KSTJ...CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARM MID LEVEL CAP.
A SQUALL LINE WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LINE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 02Z-03Z.
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTH THE LINE WILL BUILD GIVEN THE CAP
STRENGTH. AT THE TIME OF THE TAF ISSUANCE...THE O0Z TAF DID NOT HAVE
THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM KTOP. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE LOWER THAN
INDICATED ON THE CURRENT TAFS...WILL LIKELY AMEND TAFS IN THE VERY
NEAR FUTURE TO INDICATE THE DIMINISHING THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS STILL RATHER LOW.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO...MAY SEE TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT.
MODELS ARE STILL HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY AND WILL PLAY PATTERN RECOGNITION.

AFTER 12Z...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE METRO AND KSTJ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     024-025.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE IOWA BORDER. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THIS WARM AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO
MOBERLY...WITH BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RIVER
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO MACON.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S BY
LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF AN OLATHE TO CLINTON LINE.

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

MOZ001-002-270015-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY MO-
641 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ATCHISON AND NORTHWESTERN
NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 9 MILES
EAST OF TARKIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BURLINGTON JUNCTION...ELMO AND CLEARMONT.

LAT...LON 4058 9485 4052 9480 4031 9520 4045 9535
      4058 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 231DEG 21KT 4044 9518

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
747 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             5 E QUITMAN             40.37N 94.98W
06/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   STORM CHASER

&&

DDEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
752 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             5 E QUITMAN             40.37N 94.98W
06/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   STORM CHASER

&&

DDEROCHE