Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Kansas City, MO

311 
WWUS53 KEAX 270523
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MOC087-270531-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-110627T0600Z/
HOLT MO-
1223 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3990 9502 3990 9500 3993 9500 3994 9499
      3996 9499 3998 9445 3963 9451 3973 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 275DEG 32KT 3981 9486

$$

KSC043-MOC003-021-049-063-270600-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-110627T0600Z/
DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DEKALB MO-ANDREW MO-
1223 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
ANDREW...WESTERN DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...NORTHERN BUCHANAN
AND EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1220 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH...AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. 
JOSEPH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. JOSEPH...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...CLARKSDALE...STEWARTSVILLE...
  COSBY...HELENA AND EASTON.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 63.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT. TORNADOES CAN 
DEVELOP SUDDENLY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9502 3990 9500 3993 9500 3994 9499
      3996 9499 3998 9445 3963 9451 3973 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 275DEG 32KT 3981 9486
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

889 
WWUS53 KEAX 270537
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KSC043-270547-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-110627T0600Z/
DONIPHAN KS-
1237 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3970 9478 3993 9471 3993 9446 3963 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 275DEG 33KT 3977 9462

$$

MOC003-021-049-063-270600-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-110627T0600Z/
BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DEKALB MO-ANDREW MO-
1237 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ANDREW...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND NORTHEASTERN
BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CLARKSDALE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COUNTRY CLUB
VILLA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLARKSDALE AND STEWARTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9478 3993 9471 3993 9446 3963 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 275DEG 33KT 3977 9462
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF COLUMBIA TO TOPEKA MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION
SOUTH OF DES MOINES TO ABOUT COLUMBUS NEBRASKA STAYING NORTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE STRONG CAP...TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 DEG C.

MEANWHILE MCS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS SURFACE BASED AND SHOWS
SIGNS OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO AS SHEAR VALUES CURRENT AND
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
J/KG.

AREA SPECIAL SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE STRONG CAP WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST AREA OF STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS NOCTURNAL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND THE NEBRASKA MCS
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD EXPECT COLD POOL TO HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT
CHANCE OF OVERCOMING THE CINH AND USHER IN THE MCS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH 30+ KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 4000 J/KG THE POTENTIAL
DERECHO PATH WOULD BE APPROXIMATELY OMAHA TO BETHANY.

ALTHOUGH DERECHO PROPAGATION IS BY DEFINITION VERY FAST...THE RAIN
RATES WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH AND GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND WE COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
TONIGHT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE HAVE AND SO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW AND MORE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ADOLPHSON

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)...

ONCE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING...DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING...CAUSING THE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST. WITH
THIS N/NELY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DRY. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH HAVING MOVED EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MID
WEEK...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE...WILL
LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH COULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE 100F-108F RANGE.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ANOTHER TOUGH TAF FORECAST CONCERNING
CONVECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KSTJ WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
KSTJ...CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARM MID LEVEL CAP.
A SQUALL LINE WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LINE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 02Z-03Z.
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTH THE LINE WILL BUILD GIVEN THE CAP
STRENGTH. AT THE TIME OF THE TAF ISSUANCE...THE O0Z TAF DID NOT HAVE
THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM KTOP. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE LOWER THAN
INDICATED ON THE CURRENT TAFS...WILL LIKELY AMEND TAFS IN THE VERY
NEAR FUTURE TO INDICATE THE DIMINISHING THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS STILL RATHER LOW.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO...MAY SEE TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT.
MODELS ARE STILL HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY AND WILL PLAY PATTERN RECOGNITION.

AFTER 12Z...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE METRO AND KSTJ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     024-025.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE IOWA BORDER. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THIS WARM AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO
MOBERLY...WITH BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RIVER
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO MACON.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S BY
LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF AN OLATHE TO CLINTON LINE.

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHILLICOTHE             39.79N 93.55W
06/26/2011                   LIVINGSTON         MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRAYMER                 39.59N 93.80W
06/26/2011  E60 MPH          CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W NOVINGER            40.23N 92.78W
06/26/2011  E70 MPH          ADAIR              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     TSTM WND GST     MEADVILLE               39.79N 93.30W
06/26/2011  E60 MPH          LINN               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1209 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TSTM WND GST     MILAN                   40.20N 93.12W
06/27/2011  M71 MPH          SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILAN                   40.20N 93.12W
06/26/2011  M71.00 MPH       SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CUTTER