Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Kansas City, MO

694 
WWUS53 KEAX 270656
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
156 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MOC025-033-177-270730-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-110627T0730Z/
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-RAY MO-
156 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
RAY...WESTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM
CDT...

AT 153 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...BRAYMER...NORBORNE...RUSSELLVILLE...STET...BOGARD AND
  TINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9344 3929 9347 3929 9349 3926 9350
      3929 9411 3958 9399 3961 9370 3961 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 273DEG 34KT 3942 9390
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

625 
WWUS53 KEAX 270709
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
209 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MOC025-270719-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-110627T0730Z/
CALDWELL MO-
209 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3927 9344 3929 9347 3929 9349 3926 9350
      3928 9388 3953 9384 3953 9376 3951 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 273DEG 34KT 3939 9376

$$

MOC033-177-270730-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-110627T0730Z/
CARROLL MO-RAY MO-
209 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME 
EASTERN RAY AND WESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 207 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORBORNE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CARROLLTON...NORBORNE AND BOGARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS 
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9344 3929 9347 3929 9349 3926 9350
      3928 9388 3953 9384 3953 9376 3951 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 273DEG 34KT 3939 9376
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.50IN

$$

HAWBLITZEL

411 
WWUS53 KEAX 270727
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
227 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MOC033-177-270737-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-110627T0730Z/
CARROLL MO-RAY MO-
227 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RAY AND WESTERN
CARROLL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3927 9344 3929 9347 3929 9349 3926 9350
      3928 9388 3953 9384 3953 9376 3951 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 273DEG 34KT 3935 9354

$$

HAWBLITZEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION AND FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF COLUMBIA TO TOPEKA MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION
SOUTH OF DES MOINES TO ABOUT COLUMBUS NEBRASKA STAYING NORTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AND THE STRONG CAP...TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 15 DEG C.

MEANWHILE MCS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS SURFACE BASED AND SHOWS
SIGNS OF BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT DERECHO AS SHEAR VALUES CURRENT AND
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
J/KG.

AREA SPECIAL SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE STRONG CAP WHICH
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST AREA OF STORMS.
HOWEVER...AS NOCTURNAL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND THE NEBRASKA MCS
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD EXPECT COLD POOL TO HAVE AT LEAST A DECENT
CHANCE OF OVERCOMING THE CINH AND USHER IN THE MCS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH 30+ KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 4000 J/KG THE POTENTIAL
DERECHO PATH WOULD BE APPROXIMATELY OMAHA TO BETHANY.

ALTHOUGH DERECHO PROPAGATION IS BY DEFINITION VERY FAST...THE RAIN
RATES WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH AND GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND WE COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS
TONIGHT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE HAVE AND SO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW AND MORE IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ADOLPHSON

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)...

ONCE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING...DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING...CAUSING THE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST. WITH
THIS N/NELY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DRY. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH HAVING MOVED EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MID
WEEK...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE...WILL
LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH COULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE 100F-108F RANGE.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ANOTHER TOUGH TAF FORECAST CONCERNING
CONVECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KSTJ WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF
KSTJ...CORRESPONDING WELL TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WARM MID LEVEL CAP.
A SQUALL LINE WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LINE TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 02Z-03Z.
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTH THE LINE WILL BUILD GIVEN THE CAP
STRENGTH. AT THE TIME OF THE TAF ISSUANCE...THE O0Z TAF DID NOT HAVE
THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM KTOP. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE LOWER THAN
INDICATED ON THE CURRENT TAFS...WILL LIKELY AMEND TAFS IN THE VERY
NEAR FUTURE TO INDICATE THE DIMINISHING THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS STILL RATHER LOW.

IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP INTO THE KC METRO...MAY SEE TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT.
MODELS ARE STILL HANDLING THE SITUATION POORLY AND WILL PLAY PATTERN RECOGNITION.

AFTER 12Z...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE METRO AND KSTJ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
     024-025.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
637 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF STORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WARM AIR ALOFT MAY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE IOWA BORDER. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO PENETRATE THIS WARM AIR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO
MOBERLY...WITH BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE RIVER
FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PAOLA TO MACON.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S BY
LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH COULD PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF AN OLATHE TO CLINTON LINE.

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PATTONSBURG             40.05N 94.14W
06/26/2011                   DAVIESS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR BLOWN OFF THE ROAD IN OLD PATTONSBURG.

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ETHEL                   39.89N 92.74W
06/27/2011                   MACON              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

1232 AM     HAIL             COUNTRY CLUB            39.83N 94.83W
06/27/2011  E0.75 INCH       ANDREW             MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1248 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     TSTM WND GST     BEVIER                  39.75N 92.56W
06/27/2011  E70 MPH          MACON              MO   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED UP TO 70 MPH. MANY TREE
            BRANCHES DOWN. SWING SET BLOWN OVER.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUMPHREYS               40.13N 93.32W
06/26/2011                   SULLIVAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW NEW CAMBRIA        39.80N 92.78W
06/27/2011                   MACON              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CAR PORT DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
114 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     HAIL             WESTBORO                40.54N 95.32W
06/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE HAIL.

&&

CUTTER