Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Kansas City, MO

534 
WWUS53 KEAX 100153
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
853 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC079-115-117-100215-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-110610T0215Z/
GRUNDY MO-LINN MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
853 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN LINN AND SOUTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES IN NORTH 
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 915 PM CDT...AT 823 PM...AMATEUR RADIO 
OPERATORS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRENTON.

AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 
MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. A SECOND 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF SPRING HILL...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GALT AND LAREDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 9337 4003 9336 4004 9332 3988 9324
      3979 9369 3998 9377 4000 9376 4018 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 240DEG 18KT 4000 9353
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

21

545 
WWUS53 KEAX 100216
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
916 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC079-115-117-100225-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-110610T0215Z/
GRUNDY MO-LINN MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
916 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN 
LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN LINN AND SOUTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES IN NORTH 
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS BEEN REISSUED...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 
PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4014 9337 4003 9336 4004 9332 3988 9324
      3979 9369 3998 9377 4000 9376 4018 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 240DEG 18KT 4000 9352

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF INTEREST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FROM NOW DRAPED FROM NEAR
FALL CITY NEBRASKA TO KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 2000-3000 J/KG THROUGH MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. ONE CELL OF INTEREST HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
KIRKSVILLE WITH PING PONG TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD
THE STORMS RIDE ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT AREA OF INTEREST EXIST FURTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...COLD FRONT...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXISTS. 20Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWS A STOUT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITHIN THIS VICINITY. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA...MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50+KTS WILL NOSE INTO
THE AREA...ENHANCING OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THE ACTIVITY MATURES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE CAPE WITHIN THE PREFERRED HAIL GROWTH REGION SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 3 INCHES) WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING...THE ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT OR LATCH ONTO AN EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INITIAL
INDICATIONS FOR WARNING OPERATIONS SUGGESTS CORES OF 50 DBZ UP TO
40KFT AND 60 DBZ ABOVE 30KFT FOR SEVERE SIZED HAIL.

SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY-THURSDAY)...

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THIS AFTERNOONS
CONVECTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK
NORTH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AS SEVERAL UPPER FEATURES TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW GIVEN THE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF MHT KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO NEAR KSTJ. A
COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR KICT KANSAS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST EARLY TONIGHT...POSING A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z-05Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 07-09Z WITH
THE MVFR DECK IN NEBRASKA SETTLING INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. THE
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
633 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DUE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A PRINCETON TO KANSAS CITY LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC
PERIOD.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CELLS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING...AND COULD EXACERBATE THE ONGOING
MISSOURI RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
819 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 SW TRENTON            40.01N 93.70W
06/09/2011  M2.40 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   PUBLIC

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
824 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     FLOOD            MELBOURNE               40.15N 93.78W
06/09/2011                   HARRISON           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&
WATER COVERING SPOTS ALONG HIGHWAY 136 BETWEEN GILMAN CITY AND GRUNDY
COUNTY LINE

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
825 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             6 SW TRENTON            40.02N 93.68W
06/09/2011  E1.75 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
837 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
06/09/2011  M2.05 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            1-3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAYS

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
840 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             3 SW MILAN              40.17N 93.16W
06/09/2011  E1.25 INCH       SULLIVAN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
841 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S TRENTON             39.98N 93.60W
06/09/2011                   GRUNDY             MO   PUBLIC

            PART OF TREE BLOWN DOWN

&&

SFORTIN