Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

TODAY - TONIGHT:

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE FRONT RUNNING GENERALLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 35. RADAR WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
LOBE TRAVELING SOUTH OF KEAX. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MCV WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA AND THUS ANY CONVECTION IT MAY HELP TO INITIATE WILL NOT
BE A BOTHER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. BUT WITH THE FRONT SLICING THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING AND
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION THINK THAT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCAPPED BY 20-21Z. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ONLY AID
IN THE INITIATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VEERED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
PHASES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GIVEN VEER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THINK THINGS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THINK
ANY PRECIP WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z OR SO. HAVE
MENTIONED POPS THROUGH 12Z BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED IN FUTURE
UPDATES AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER.

SATURDAY:

WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ROUGHLY OVER THE AREA
WE SHOULD SEE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH MAY SEEM ALMOST
CHILLY COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT:

THE QUIET...REFRESHING WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
BOUNDARY...AND THE MOISTURE IT HAD SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A MINOR
SHORTWAVE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP GET MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY LOOKS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A BAND STRONGER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. BY 00Z MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LOOKS DRAPED THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL MO/EAST CENTRAL KS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...MAINLY
EARLY. ELEVATED WARM AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAP THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY BY AFTERNOON.

TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WHICH
IS THE DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA IN AN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LESS
CAPPING. ECMWF SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THIS POINT...BUT KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGESTING A WEAK LINGERING BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH TWO MAIN CONCERNS
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. FIRST CONCERN IS CONVECTION BETWEEN MCI AND
TOP WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE NW MO TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
TWO HOURS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT STJ AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. SECOND CONCERN IS THE AREA OF WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WHICH HAS
DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS STJ THIS MORNING BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THESE CIGS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER AND LIFT THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND WARMS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR MORE CONVECTION AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE NEAR THE MCI-IRK CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IFR OR MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
509 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
509 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
KIRKSVILLE TO KANSAS CITY LINE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AS COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE LINE.

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W OLATHE              38.89N 94.85W
06/10/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
820 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KSZ025-102-MOZ020-101400-
ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-
820 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN
AND NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 819 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSHVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ATCHISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ELWOOD...ST. JOSEPH...AGENCY...DE KALB AND EASTON.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 49.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 6.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3964 9518 3982 9472 3982 9469 3966 9460
      3965 9460 3955 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1320Z 247DEG 27KT 3963 9503

BOOKBINDER