Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Kansas City, MO

773 
WWUS53 KEAX 100059
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
759 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC061-079-117-100130-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110610T0130Z/
DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
759 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND EASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH...AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMESPORT...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
GALLATIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AT 758 PM...AMATEUR RADIO 
OPERATORS REPORTED TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL 1 MILE EAST OF GALLATIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JAMESPORT...SPRING HILL AND BRIMSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9356 3987 9398 4003 9406 4013 9384
      4013 9377 4017 9376 4020 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 241DEG 20KT 3999 9386
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

DEROCHE

918 
WWUS53 KEAX 100107
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
807 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC061-079-117-100130-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110610T0130Z/
DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
807 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND EASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 
830 PM CDT...AT 802 PM...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED THREE INCH 
DIAMETER HAIL 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMESPORT.

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH...AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMESPORT...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
GALLATIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPRING HILL AND BRIMSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3987 9356 3987 9398 4003 9406 4013 9384
      4013 9377 4017 9376 4020 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 241DEG 20KT 3999 9378
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.75IN

$$

21

720 
WWUS53 KEAX 100130
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
830 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC061-079-117-100139-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110610T0130Z/
DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
830 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN 
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND EASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES WILL 
EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
EASTERN DAVIESS...WESTERN GRUNDY...AND NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES 
UNTIL 845 PM.

LAT...LON 3987 9356 3987 9398 4003 9406 4013 9384
      4013 9377 4017 9376 4020 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 259DEG 23KT 4003 9383

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF INTEREST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FROM NOW DRAPED FROM NEAR
FALL CITY NEBRASKA TO KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 2000-3000 J/KG THROUGH MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. ONE CELL OF INTEREST HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
KIRKSVILLE WITH PING PONG TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD
THE STORMS RIDE ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT AREA OF INTEREST EXIST FURTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...COLD FRONT...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXISTS. 20Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWS A STOUT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITHIN THIS VICINITY. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA...MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50+KTS WILL NOSE INTO
THE AREA...ENHANCING OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THE ACTIVITY MATURES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE CAPE WITHIN THE PREFERRED HAIL GROWTH REGION SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 3 INCHES) WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING...THE ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT OR LATCH ONTO AN EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INITIAL
INDICATIONS FOR WARNING OPERATIONS SUGGESTS CORES OF 50 DBZ UP TO
40KFT AND 60 DBZ ABOVE 30KFT FOR SEVERE SIZED HAIL.

SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY-THURSDAY)...

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THIS AFTERNOONS
CONVECTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK
NORTH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AS SEVERAL UPPER FEATURES TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW GIVEN THE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF MHT KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO NEAR KSTJ. A
COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR KICT KANSAS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST EARLY TONIGHT...POSING A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z-05Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 07-09Z WITH
THE MVFR DECK IN NEBRASKA SETTLING INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. THE
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
633 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DUE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A PRINCETON TO KANSAS CITY LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC
PERIOD.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CELLS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING...AND COULD EXACERBATE THE ONGOING
MISSOURI RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
724 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 N CONCEPTION          40.26N 94.68W
06/09/2011  E1.25 INCH       NODAWAY            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
725 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             ALTAMONT                39.89N 94.09W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       DAVIESS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
726 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             MEADVILLE               39.79N 93.30W
06/09/2011  E0.88 INCH       LINN               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
727 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             CALLAO                  39.76N 92.62W
06/09/2011  E1.50 INCH       MACON              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
741 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             N STANBERRY             40.22N 94.54W
06/09/2011  E1.50 INCH       GENTRY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
742 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             4 N STANBERRY           40.27N 94.54W
06/09/2011  E1.50 INCH       GENTRY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SFORTIN