Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Kansas City, MO

161 
WWUS53 KEAX 100343
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1043 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOC147-100353-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-110610T0345Z/
NODAWAY MO-
1043 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4058 9485 4040 9501 4053 9519 4058 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 223DEG 33KT 4064 9489

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF INTEREST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING ACTIVITY...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ALONG WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FROM NOW DRAPED FROM NEAR
FALL CITY NEBRASKA TO KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 2000-3000 J/KG THROUGH MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. ONE CELL OF INTEREST HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
KIRKSVILLE WITH PING PONG TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD
THE STORMS RIDE ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT AREA OF INTEREST EXIST FURTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...COLD FRONT...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXISTS. 20Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWS A STOUT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITHIN THIS VICINITY. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA...MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 50+KTS WILL NOSE INTO
THE AREA...ENHANCING OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THE ACTIVITY MATURES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE CAPE WITHIN THE PREFERRED HAIL GROWTH REGION SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 3 INCHES) WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING...THE ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT OR LATCH ONTO AN EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INITIAL
INDICATIONS FOR WARNING OPERATIONS SUGGESTS CORES OF 50 DBZ UP TO
40KFT AND 60 DBZ ABOVE 30KFT FOR SEVERE SIZED HAIL.

SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY-THURSDAY)...

BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THIS AFTERNOONS
CONVECTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK
NORTH WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME AS SEVERAL UPPER FEATURES TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE REGION. WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW GIVEN THE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF MHT KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO NEAR KSTJ. A
COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR KICT KANSAS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST EARLY TONIGHT...POSING A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z-05Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 07-09Z WITH
THE MVFR DECK IN NEBRASKA SETTLING INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z. THE
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
633 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DUE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A PRINCETON TO KANSAS CITY LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC
PERIOD.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CELLS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING...AND COULD EXACERBATE THE ONGOING
MISSOURI RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
959 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW TRENTON            40.05N 93.64W
06/09/2011                   GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            1-2 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD ON ROUTE W SOUTHWEST OF
            TRENTON AT THE WOLF CREEK

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HAIL             MARCELINE               39.74N 92.47W
06/09/2011  E0.75 INCH       MACON              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SFORTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

MOZ001>004-011-100345-
ATCHISON MO-GENTRY MO-HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-WORTH MO-
1002 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...WORTH...NODAWAY...
NORTHERN HOLT AND NORTHWESTERN GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TARKIO TO 8 MILES
EAST OF FAIRFAX TO MOUND CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  TARKIO...MARYVILLE...MAITLAND...SKIDMORE...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...
  RAVENWOOD...HOPKINS...GRANT CITY...GRAHAM...QUITMAN...WESTBORO...
  ELMO...ARKOE...CLEARMONT...PICKERING...PARNELL...SHERIDAN AND
  WORTH.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND 117.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4058 9432 4043 9427 4006 9524 4039 9565
      4045 9565 4046 9568 4059 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 245DEG 46KT 4043 9538 4036 9520
          4018 9512

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1003 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     HAIL             MARCELINE               39.72N 92.95W
06/09/2011  E0.75 INCH       LINN               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1011 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             BUCKLIN                 39.78N 92.89W
06/09/2011  E2.75 INCH       LINN               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1025 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

KSZ057-060-MOZ043-053-100415-
BATES MO-CASS MO-LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
1025 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WESTERN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1021 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS OUTFLOW WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPRING HILL TO 5 MILES NORTH OF PLEASANTON TO 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FULTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LOUISBURG...ADRIAN...PECULIAR...BUTLER...RICH HILL...
  HARRISONVILLE...PRESCOTT...DREXEL...HUME...CLEVELAND...FREEMAN...
  ARCHIE...NEW LANCASTER...WAGSTAFF...CHILES...AMORET...AMSTERDAM...
  WORLAND...MERWIN AND BUCYRUS.

LAT...LON 3803 9508 3826 9508 3826 9507 3872 9506
      3874 9470 3874 9461 3875 9461 3876 9432
      3837 9418 3805 9429 3806 9461 3803 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 255DEG 30KT 3870 9488 3825 9470
          3786 9484

21