Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Gaylord, MI

690 
FZUS73 KAPX 111922
MWSAPX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

LMZ346-366-112000-
/O.CON.KAPX.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-110511T2000Z/

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE...
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE...

AT 318 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT...DANGEROUS WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL 9 NM NORTHWEST OF MANISTEE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.

LAT...LON 4444 8623 4433 8626 4425 8633 4425 8636
      4427 8638 4426 8641 4428 8643 4428 8660
      4428 8671 4439 8671
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 235DEG 7KT 4434 8648
WIND...HAIL 65KNOTS >.75IN

$$


ARNOTT

260 
FZUS73 KAPX 111958
MWSAPX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

LMZ346-366-112009-
/O.EXP.KAPX.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-110511T2000Z/

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE...
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE...

THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO
BOATERS.

GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4444 8623 4433 8626 4425 8633 4425 8636
      4427 8638 4426 8641 4428 8643 4428 8660
      4428 8671 4439 8671
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 235DEG 7KT 4438 8640

$$


ARNOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
128 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/

A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE AHEAD FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST...WILL BRING
THE WARM AIR TO THE REGION. WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO INCREASING...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

JZ

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 126 PM/...THIS AFTERNOON

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FIRE
WITHIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND ON EASTERN EDGE OF BE MUCAPES.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE A BIT GOING ON ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WITH A DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS...WAKE LOWS AND SEICHES ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND
SPOT FORECASTS. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO WORK EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
/MUCAPES OF 1-2K NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE/. DRYING EVIDENT ON
THE NORTHWEST BACKEGE OF PCPN SHIELD ON MQT/APX RADARS AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CARRY
PCPN TOWARD THE LAKE HURON COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS/INTENSITY.

STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF MCS
WITH WAKE LOW CREATING WINDS GUSTS NEAR 50KTS OVER PORTIONS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN /48KT GUST AT ANJ THIS PAST HOUR/. THIS WAKE LOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLY PRODUCING A SEICHE OVER WHITEFISH
BAY. WILL NOT TRY TO HANDLE THIS SHORT FUSE FEATURE/WINDS IN GRIDS
AND INSTEAD HANDLE IT WITH LAKE SHORE FLOOD WARNINGS AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS.

BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUD
CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THINS OUT. CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WILL TREND LOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SUNSHINE. WILL TEMPER
THESE READINGS A BIT GIVEN EARLY RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IF CLOUDS THIN MORE
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS HIGHER.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON? NOT MUCH TO REALLY HANG YOUR
HAT ON AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. WITH AXIS OF IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /2000+/ AND TIGHT 850MB
THETA-E GRADIENT JUST WEST OF THE AREA...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS.  WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF
I-75 FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NO
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INTIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ENDS.

JK

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE BREAKS OFF THE PARENT 500 MB
LOW HEADING OUT OF COLORADO AND MOVES UP THE RIDGE, FLATTENING IT
A BIT AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE NORTHERN SFC LOW TO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 06Z. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER WITH THIS UPPER
AIR SUPPORT, LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN MINNESOTA AND MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER
MCS. MODELS EXPECT THAT THIS IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CURRENT MCS IS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS.

THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD
FRONT LAYS OUT FROM THE SFC LOW NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE WARM FRONT AND 500 MB RIDGE WHICH
SHOULD BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE 500 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO FILL AND STAY ALONG THE SUB TROPICAL JET.
IT DOESN'T LIFT OUT, BUT INSTEAD CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WITH IT, BEGINS TO PULL
THE SFC FRONT AND THE SOUTHERN OF THE SFC LOWS WITH IT. THE
NORTHERN SFC LOW IS BEGINNING TO FILL AS WELL SO THAT THERE IS A
GENERAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN AND DOWN TO KMCI. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN E UPPER, AND WITH THE SHOWALTER INDICES RANGING FROM 0C
TO -2C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN N LOWER. THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOW SPLITTING INTO TWO. ONE IN MISSOURI AND
ONE IN NORTH DAKOTA. A 500 MB RIDGE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BEGIN TO FORCES THE MORE
STABLE AIR SOUTH SO THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST SOUTHERN OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS HAS SO MUCH QPF, THAT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS
SUFFERING FROM SOME FEED BACK ISSUES ESPECIALLY BY 12Z/SAT. THE
ECMWF LOOKS LIKE IT IS A LITTLE CLEANER AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
50 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY OUT E UPPER OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE AS
THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWING ALONG WITH WHAT THE GOING FORECAST IS. ALSO
THE GFS IS A LITTLE LAGGING, BUT IS BEGINNING TO DRY THINGS OUT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SO WE WILL GO INTO A COOLER PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP BEGINS ABOUT MID
NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/

GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
TODAY...THOUGH SOME LOCAL EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND DIRECTIONS
IN SPOTS (E.G., THROUGH THE STRAITS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
EASTERLY). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER GOING INTO THURSDAY AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

JPB/JSL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 122 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROFS SLIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE WAVE EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NEXT
WAVE ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE FOR THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

JK
&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1129 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
121830-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1129 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
EXITS THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AN AREA OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF
MITT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
THESE WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED RISE AND FALL OF LAKE
LEVELS /SEICHE/...ESPECIALLY IN WHITEFISH BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY BUT SPOTTERS PLEASE RELAY
ANY LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
201 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VANDERBILT              45.14N  84.66W
05/11/2011                   OTSEGO             MI   PUBLIC

            12 TO 14 IN. DIAMETER FIR TREE SNAPPED IN HALF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100358

SCHWARTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOYNE CITY              45.18N  84.96W
05/11/2011                   CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL BRANCHES DOWN...PORTABLE CANOPY BLOWN AROUND 50
            FEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100359

SCHWARTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
216 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N WELLSTON            44.23N  85.95W
05/11/2011                   MANISTEE           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100360

SCHWARTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
221 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N WELLSTON            44.23N  85.95W
05/11/2011  M2.88 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2.88 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 90 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100361

SCHWARTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
227 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             1 W CADILLAC            44.25N  85.44W
05/11/2011  M0.25 INCH       WEXFORD            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100362

SCHWARTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
233 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             1 N BEAR LAKE           44.73N  84.93W
05/11/2011  M0.70 INCH       KALKASKA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100363

SCHWARTZ